Montana was won by incumbent PresidentGeorge W. Bush by a 20.5% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a safe red state.
There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]
Source
Ranking
D.C. Political Report
Solid R
Cook Political Report
Solid R
Research 2000
Solid R
Zogby International
Likely R
Washington Post
Likely R
Washington Dispatch
Likely R
Washington Times
Solid R
The New York Times
Solid R
CNN
Likely R
Newsweek
Solid R
Associated Press
Solid R
Rasmussen Reports
Likely R
Polling
Only a few pre-election polls were taken here. Bush won each one of them with a double-digit margin and with at least 54% of the vote. The final 3 polling average showed him leading 55% to 35%.[2]
Fundraising
Bush raised $385,635.[3] Kerry raised $145,679.[4]
Advertising and visits
Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall campaign.[5][6]
Analysis
Bush's key to victory was winning the highly populated Yellowstone County with 60% along with the majority of other counties. Kerry only won six counties in the state, including swinging Missoula County and his best performance in the Democratic stronghold of Deer Lodge County.
Results
2004 United States presidential election in Montana[7]
Due to the state's low population, only one congressional district is allocated. This district, called the at-large district, because it covers the entire state, and thus is equivalent to the statewide election results.
Technically the voters of Montana cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Montana is allocated 3 electors because it has 1 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 3 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 3 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.
The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.
The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All three were pledged for Bush/Cheney.[8]
^"Archived copy". dcpoliticalreport.com. Archived from the original on November 21, 2010. Retrieved June 6, 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
