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2012 United States Senate election in North Dakota

2012 United States Senate election in North Dakota
← 2006 November 6, 2012 2018 →
Turnout60.6% (voting eligible)[1]
 
Nominee Heidi Heitkamp Rick Berg
Party Democratic–NPL Republican
Popular vote 161,337 158,401
Percentage 50.24% 49.32%
Heitkamp:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      80–90%
Berg:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
U.S. senator before election

Kent Conrad
Democratic–NPL

Elected U.S. Senator

Heidi Heitkamp
Democratic–NPL

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The 2012 United States Senate election in North Dakota took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election, other United States Senate elections, United States House of Representatives elections, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic-NPL Senator Kent Conrad decided to retire instead of running for reelection to a fifth term.

Though each party endorses a single candidate in state conventions in the spring, ballot access for the general election was determined in a primary election held on June 12, 2012.[2]

Heidi Heitkamp, a Democratic-NPL former North Dakota Attorney General, won the open seat over Republican Rick Berg, North Dakota's at-large U.S. Representative, by a margin of 0.9%.[3] Heitkamp outperformed President Barack Obama by 20.5%, the latter having lost North Dakota by 19.6% in the concurrent presidential election.[4] Heitkamp's very narrow winning margin made it the closest race of the 2012 United States Senate elections. The victory made Heitkamp the first woman ever elected to Congress from North Dakota.[a]

As of 2024, this was the last time a Democrat won a federal and/or statewide election in North Dakota.[5]

Democratic-NPL primary

The North Dakota Democratic-NPL Party held their state convention March 16–18, 2012, in Grand Forks. Former state attorney general and 2000 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Heidi Heitkamp was uncontested in seeking the official party nomination and was the only member of the party elected to appear on the state primary ballot.[6]

Candidates

Nominee

Withdrew

  • Thomas Potter, Presbyterian pastor and former professor of finance at UND[8] (dropped out February 2012)[9]

Declined

Republican primary

North Dakota Republicans endorsed U.S. Representative Rick Berg at their convention, though general election ballot access is determined by a statewide primary election held on June 12, 2012. In contrast to state political tradition, declared candidate Duane Sand did not seek the party endorsement, trying instead to defeat Berg on the June primary ballot.[20]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Rick Berg

Individuals

Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Rick
Berg 		Duane
Sand 		Undecided
Mason-Dixon[37] June 4–6, 2012 625 ± 4.0% 73% 16% 11%
Essman Research[38] May 3–8, 2012 500 ± 4.3% 65% 21% 14%

Results

Results by county:
  Berg—80–90%
  Berg—70–80%
  Berg—60–70%
  Berg—50–60%
Republican primary results[39]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Rick Berg 67,849 66.41%
Republican Duane Sand 34,209 33.48%
Republican Write-ins 111 .41%
Total votes 102,281 100.00%

General election

Candidates

Debates

Fundraising

Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Heidi Heitkamp (D-NPL) $5,341,362 $5,318,232 $23,130 $0
Rick Berg (R) $6,501,693 $6,129,026 $316,641 $0
Source: Federal Election Commission[41][42]

Top contributors

[43]

Heidi Heitkamp Contribution Rick Berg Contribution
Motley Rice LLC $41,750 Verizon Communications $43,666
Council for a Livable World $26,705 Elliott Management Corporation $29,413
Weitz & Luxenberg $22,400 NORPAC $26,700
Robbins Geller Rudman & Dowd LLP $15,050 Mewbourne Oil Co $25,000
Medcenter One Health Systems $12,000 Rurban Financial $22,700
American Association for Justice $10,833 Hess Corp $22,500
Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld $10,750 NACCO Industries $22,000
American Federation of Teachers $10,300 Marathon Oil $21,000
Patton Boggs LLP $10,250 Berkshire Hathaway $20,500
American Postal Workers Union $10,000 Koch Industries $20,000

Top industries

[44]

Heidi Heitkamp Contribution Rick Berg Contribution
Lawyers/law firms $433,811 Oil & gas $433,949
Leadership PACs $284,500 Leadership PACs $277,163
Women's issues $111,593 Financial institutions $274,941
Lobbyists $103,635 Retired $218,909
Retired $100,812 Real estate $171,686
Agribusiness $78,450 Agribusiness $163,583
Public sector unions $73,800 Insurance $140,011
Financial institutions $64,713 Commercial banks $127,140
Education $60,960 Health professionals $114,438
Building trade unions $52,500 Mining $106,804

Independent expenditures

In early October 2012, Crossroads GPS announced that it would launch a $16 million advertising buy in national races, of which four were this and three other Senate elections.[45]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[46] Tossup November 1, 2012
Inside Elections[47] Tilt R (flip) November 2, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[48] Lean R (flip) November 5, 2012
Real Clear Politics[49] Tossup November 5, 2012

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Heidi
Heitkamp (D-NPL) 		Rick
Berg (R) 		Other Undecided
Pharos Research[50] November 2–5, 2012 503 ± 4.1% 47% 49% — 4%
Pharos Research[51] October 26–28, 2012 752 ± 3.6% 50% 48% — 2%
Mason-Dixon[52] October 26–28, 2012 625 ± 4.0% 45% 47% — 8%
The Mellman Group (D-Heitkamp)[53] October 21–24, 2012 600 ± 4.0% 48% 44% — 7%
Pharos Research[54] October 19–21, 2012 807 ± 3.4% 49% 48% — 3%
The Mellman Group (D-Heitkamp)[55] October 16–19, 2012 600 ± 4.0% 45% 42% — 13%
Rasmussen Reports[56] October 17–18, 2012 600 ± 4.0% 45% 50% — 5%
Essman Research[57] October 12–15, 2012 500 ± 4.4% 40% 50% — 10%
Mason-Dixon[58] October 3–5, 2012 625 ± 4.0% 47% 47% — 6%
DFM Research (D)[59] September 24–27, 2012 600 ± 4.0% 48% 44% — 8%
DFM Research (D)[60] July 24–26, 2012 400 ± 4.9% 50% 44% — 6%
Rasmussen Reports[61] July 10–11, 2012 400 ± 5.0% 40% 49% 2% 8%
Mason-Dixon[37] June 4–6, 2012 625 ± 4.0% 47% 46% — 7%
Essman Research[38] May 3–8, 2012 500 ± 4.3% 44% 51% — 5%
DFM Research (D)[62] April 18–26, 2012 478 ± 4.5% 49% 44% 1% 6%

Results

United States Senate election in North Dakota, 2012[63]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic–NPL Heidi Heitkamp 161,337 50.24% −18.58%
Republican Rick Berg 158,401 49.32% +19.79%
Write-in 1,406 0.44% N/A
Total votes 321,144 100.00% N/A
Democratic–NPL hold

By county

By county
County Heidi Heitkamp
Democratic–NPL 		Rick Berg
Republican 		Write-in Margin Total
votes
# % # % # % # %
Adams 473 36.90 806 62.87 3 0.23 -333 -25.97 1,282
Barnes 3,181 57.51 2,329 42.11 21 0.38 852 15.40 5,531
Benson 1,453 67.08 709 32.73 4 0.18 744 34.45 2,166
Billings 160 27.92 412 71.90 1 0.17 -252 -43.98 573
Bottineau 1,636 46.33 1,875 53.10 20 0.57 -239 -6.77 3,531
Bowman 621 36.29 1,086 63.47 4 0.23 -465 -27.18 1,711
Burke 360 35.29 657 64.41 3 0.29 -731 -29.12 1,020
Burleigh 19,284 44.79 23,538 54.67 231 0.54 -4,254 -9.88 43,053
Cass 41,480 56.51 31,569 43.00 359 0.49 9,911 13.51 73,408
Cavalier 1,087 52.49 977 47.18 7 0.34 110 5.31 2,071
Dickey 1,125 44.43 1,399 55.25 8 0.32 -274 -10.92 2,532
Divide 592 50.95 567 48.80 3 0.26 25 2.15 1,162
Dunn 746 36.71 1,283 63.14 3 0.15 -537 -26.43 2,032
Eddy 693 60.00 455 39.39 7 0.61 238 20.61 1,155
Emmons 709 37.85 1,152 61.51 12 0.64 -443 -23.66 1,873
Foster 853 51.05 810 48.47 8 0.48 43 2.58 1,671
Golden Valley 265 28.59 660 71.20 2 0.22 -395 -42.61 927
Grand Forks 16,542 55.60 13,101 44.04 107 0.36 3,441 11.56 29,750
Grant 542 38.66 853 60.84 7 0.50 -311 -22.18 1,402
Griggs 704 52.85 628 47.15 0 0.00 76 5.70 1,332
Hettinger 511 37.63 843 62.08 4 0.29 -332 -24.45 1,358
Kidder 613 46.19 706 53.20 8 0.60 -93 -7.01 1,327
LaMoure 1,065 48.34 1,125 51.07 13 0.59 -60 -2.73 2,203
Logan 446 42.00 610 57.44 6 0.56 -164 -15.44 1,062
McHenry 1,359 50.20 1,339 49.46 9 0.33 20 0.74 2,707
McIntosh 648 42.35 872 56.99 10 0.65 -224 -14.64 1,530
McKenzie 1,229 36.02 2,177 63.80 6 0.18 -948 -26.98 3,412
McLean 2,357 47.96 2,544 51.76 14 0.28 -187 -3.80 4,915
Mercer 1,807 40.59 2,627 59.01 18 0.40 -820 -18.42 4,452
Morton 6,325 46.68 7,135 52.66 90 0.66 -810 -5.98 13,550
Mountrail 1,745 50.92 1,673 48.82 9 0.26 72 2.10 3,427
Nelson 993 59.50 670 40.14 6 0.36 323 19.36 1,669
Oliver 446 44.33 555 55.17 5 0.50 -109 -10.84 1,006
Pembina 1,672 51.30 1,579 48.45 8 0.25 93 2.85 3,259
Pierce 1,027 47.22 1,136 52.23 12 0.55 -109 -5.01 2,175
Ramsey 2,766 55.18 2,229 44.46 18 0.36 537 10.72 5,013
Ransom 1,669 68.71 755 31.08 5 0.21 914 37.63 2,429
Renville 580 46.00 676 53.61 5 0.40 -96 -7.61 1,261
Richland 4,445 58.39 3,135 41.18 102 1.31 1,310 17.21 7,613
Rolette 3,662 80.08 902 19.72 9 0.20 2,760 60.36 4,573
Sargent 1,321 65.66 679 33.75 12 0.60 642 31.91 2,012
Sheridan 299 36.29 521 63.23 4 0.49 -222 -26.94 824
Sioux 963 83.52 185 16.05 5 0.43 778 67.47 1,153
Slope 149 33.48 294 66.07 2 0.45 -100 -32.59 445
Stark 4,110 35.63 7,393 64.09 32 0.28 -3,283 -28.46 11,535
Steele 641 61.63 398 38.27 1 0.10 243 23.36 1,040
Stutsman 4,800 50.61 4,654 49.07 30 0.32 146 1.54 9,484
Towner 699 59.39 472 40.10 6 0.51 227 19.29 1,177
Traill 2,311 59.06 1,589 40.61 13 0.33 722 18.45 3,913
Walsh 2,645 54.94 2,151 44.68 18 0.37 494 10.26 4,814
Ward 11,230 44.45 13,888 54.97 145 0.57 -2,658 -10.52 25,263
Wells 982 41.59 1,363 57.73 16 0.68 -381 16.14 2,361
Williams 3,142 32.37 6,541 67.38 24 0.25 -3,399 -35.01 9,707
Totals 161,163 50.23 158,282 49.33 1,406 0.44 2,492 0.9 320,851
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Jocelyn Burdick appointed to finish her late husband's term at this seat, but did not run to finish the term.

References

  1. ^ Dr. Michael McDonald (February 9, 2013). "2012 General Election Turnout Rates". George Mason University. Archived from the original on April 24, 2013. Retrieved April 6, 2013.
  2. ^ "North Dakota election calendar" (PDF). Secretary of State. July 2011. Retrieved August 17, 2011.
  3. ^ Kate Nocera (November 7, 2012). "Heidi Heitkamp scores upset win in North Dakota". Politico. Retrieved April 17, 2014.
  4. ^ "Can Heitkamp Win Again in Red North Dakota?". www.realclearpolitics.com. Retrieved October 21, 2019.
  5. ^ The Associated Press (February 22, 2024). "North Dakota Republican Sen. Kevin Cramer says he's seeking reelection". Toronto Star. Retrieved February 23, 2024.
  6. ^ "ND Democrats set their fall legislative ticket". Newsday. Associated Press. March 17, 2012. Retrieved March 29, 2012.
  7. ^ a b Daum, Kristen M (November 8, 2011). "SPECULATION NO MORE: Heitkamp announces U.S. Senate run". Flickertales from The Hill. Archived from the original on July 16, 2012. Retrieved November 8, 2011.
  8. ^ Nodland, Chad (October 25, 2011). "Tom Potter: I'm Running For Senate". NorthDecoder.com. Archived from the original on April 2, 2012. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
  9. ^ Smith, Nick (February 24, 2012). "Potter drops Senate bid". The Bismarck Tribune. Retrieved February 25, 2012.
  10. ^ Haga, Chuck (January 18, 2011). "Conrad will not run for re-election in 2012". Grand Forks Herald. Archived from the original on December 16, 2012. Retrieved January 18, 2011.
  11. ^ Miller, Joshua (September 26, 2011). "Ex-State Rep. Pam Gulleson Launches House Bid". Roll Call. Archived from the original on November 16, 2011. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
  12. ^ a b "State Sen. Schneider: 2012 U.S. Senate race not now 'in the cards'". Grand Forks Herald. August 1, 2011. Retrieved October 25, 2011.[permanent dead link‍](subscription required)
  13. ^ Catanese, David (November 1, 2011). "Heitkamp telling Dems she's running for Senate". Politico. Retrieved February 25, 2012.
  14. ^ Miller, Tricia (January 18, 2011). "Retirements Shuffle 2012 Senate Landscape". Roll Call. Archived from the original on January 21, 2011. Retrieved January 18, 2011.
  15. ^ a b c d Beitsch, Rebecca (January 18, 2011). "Neither party lacking Senate contenders". Bismarck Tribune. Retrieved January 18, 2011.
  16. ^ Trygstad, Kyle; Toeplitz, Shira (April 11, 2011). "West Virginia, North Dakota Senate Race Ratings Change". Roll Call. Archived from the original on September 17, 2011. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
  17. ^ Sullivan, Sean (April 28, 2011). "Club For Growth Slams Berg". National Journal. Archived from the original on April 6, 2012. Retrieved April 29, 2011.
  18. ^ Rodgers, Ben (January 19, 2011). "Schneider says he hasn't ruled out running for Conrad's Senate seat". The Jamestown Sun. Retrieved January 19, 2011.[permanent dead link‍]
  19. ^ "Democrat Taylor joins race for N.D. governor". Grand Forks Herald. December 12, 2011. Retrieved December 19, 2011.[permanent dead link‍](subscription required)
  20. ^ Daum, Kristen (March 29, 2012). "Divide within North Dakota's GOP creates friction in endorsement process". The Forum of Fargo-Moorhead. Retrieved March 29, 2012.[permanent dead link‍]
  21. ^ a b Sobel, Julie (May 16, 2011). "Berg Enters N.D. Senate Race". National Journal: Hotline On Call. Archived from the original on November 4, 2011. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
  22. ^ a b Toeplitz, Shira (May 16, 2011). "House Freshman Berg Will Run for Senate in North Dakota". Roll Call. Archived from the original on February 16, 2012. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
  23. ^ "Sand Announces Entry into North Dakota Senate Race" (Press release). Standard Newswire. August 8, 2011. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
  24. ^ Toeplitz, Shira (May 3, 2011). "N.D. GOP Expecting Competitive House Race". Roll Call. Archived from the original on January 6, 2012. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
  25. ^ a b Catanese, David (April 26, 2011). "N.D. lawmakers unite behind Berg for Senate". Politico. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
  26. ^ a b Smith, Nick (November 3, 2011). "Dalrymple to run in 2012". Williston Herald. Retrieved November 3, 2011.
  27. ^ Daum, Kristen M (October 13, 2011). "N.D. tax commissioner opts against congressional bid in 2012". Flickertales from The Hill. Archived from the original on December 18, 2011. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
  28. ^ Daum, Kristen M (November 29, 2011). "Goettle declares as 4th GOP contender in 2012 U.S. House race". Flickertales from The Hill. Archived from the original on July 16, 2012. Retrieved November 29, 2011.
  29. ^ Beitsch, Rebecca (May 13, 2011). "Sand starts Senate campaign committee". Bismarck Tribune. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
  30. ^ Trygstad, Kyle (May 20, 2011). "Kalk to Run for House Instead of Senate in North Dakota". Roll Call. Archived from the original on May 23, 2011. Retrieved May 20, 2011.
  31. ^ Daum, Kristen M (December 5, 2011). "West Fargo legislator seeks GOP nod in packed U.S. House race". Flickertales from The Hill. Archived from the original on July 15, 2012. Retrieved December 5, 2011.
  32. ^ Miller, Tricia (December 27, 2010). "North Dakota GOPers Target Conrad Seat". Roll Call. Archived from the original on December 30, 2010. Retrieved January 17, 2011.
  33. ^ Finneman, Teri (February 20, 2012). "Kelly Schmidt to seek third term as North Dakota treasurer". The Forum of Fargo-Moorhead. Retrieved February 25, 2012.[permanent dead link‍]
  34. ^ Gonzales, Nathan L (April 26, 2011). "Berg Senate Run Likely in North Dakota". Roll Call. Archived from the original on April 29, 2011. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
  35. ^ Bunk, Matt (June 1, 2011). "In Focus with Bismarck Mayor John Warford". Great Plains Examiner. Archived from the original on June 13, 2011. Retrieved February 25, 2012.
  36. ^ "ND House candidates attract dueling endorsements for pro-gun groups". Grand Forks Herald. Fargo. October 13, 2012. Archived from the original on August 2, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
  37. ^ a b "Heitkamp Leads Berg in Latest Poll". Valley News Live. Gray Television. June 7, 2012. Archived from the original on June 7, 2012.
  38. ^ a b Daum, Kristen (May 17, 2012). "Poll: Berg leads Heitkamp in U.S. Senate race". The Forum of Fargo-Moorhead. Forum Communications. Archived from the original on May 23, 2012.
  39. ^ "North Dakota Secretary of State".
  40. ^ "Candidate throws his name into the U.S. Senate Race". WDAY-TV. Forum Communications Company. September 6, 2012. Archived from the original on September 10, 2012.
  41. ^ "2012 House and Senate Campaign Finance for North Dakota HEITKAMP, HEIDI". fec.gov. November 26, 2012. Archived from the original on April 21, 2011. Retrieved December 17, 2012.
  42. ^ "2012 House and Senate Campaign Finance for North Dakota BERG, RICHARD A". fec.gov. November 26, 2012. Archived from the original on April 21, 2011. Retrieved December 17, 2012.
  43. ^ "North Dakota Senate 2012 Race". OpenSecrets. Retrieved September 2, 2022.
  44. ^ "North Dakota Senate 2012 Race: Top Industries". OpenSecrets. Retrieved September 2, 2022.
  45. ^ Haberman, Maggie (October 2, 2012). "Crossroads launches $16 million buy in Senate, presidential contests". Politico.com. Retrieved October 2, 2012.
  46. ^ "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on August 29, 2018. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  47. ^ "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  48. ^ "2012 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  49. ^ "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  50. ^ Pharos Research
  51. ^ "North Dakota Polling Report: 10/26/12-10/28/12" (PDF). Pharos Research Group. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 20, 2014.
  52. ^ Mason-Dixon
  53. ^ The Mellman Group (D-Heitkamp)
  54. ^ Pharos Research
  55. ^ The Mellman Group (D-Heitkamp)
  56. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  57. ^ Essman Research
  58. ^ Mason-Dixon
  59. ^ DFM Research (D)
  60. ^ DFM Research (D)
  61. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  62. ^ DFM Research (D)
  63. ^ "OFFICIAL 2012 GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS". results.sos.nd.gov. Retrieved January 13, 2019.

Official campaign websites (Archived)

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