In March 2023 Estonia held its latest national election, and in that occasion the Reform Party managed to maintain its position as biggest party in parliament, while its leader and incumbent Prime Minister Kaja Kallas was reconfirmed in the office with the support of the Social Democratic Party and Estonia 200.
Reform Party
In recent months the party's performance in opinion polls has suffered significantly from the party's decision to back several tax increases unpopular with the economically liberal voter base as well as due to a scandal involving party leader Kaja Kallas. In August 2023, she came under the international spotlight after it was revealed that her husband held a significant share in a transportation company, Stark Logistics, which continued business with Russia despite Kallas's previous calls for Estonian companies to cease operations in Russia in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[9] Kallas tried to minimise the affair and ignored the calls for her resignation from her political opponents, calling the controversy a "witch-hunt".[10]
At the same time she has appeared in the news as a prominent figure of the Renew Europe group and therefore as one of the frontrunners to be ALDE's Spitzenkandidat for the European Commission's presidency. She has also been linked to the post of High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, whose current holder Josep Borrell will retire at the end of this mandate, or to the post of Estonia's European Commissioner, currently held by Kadri Simson (Centre Party).[11][12] On 7 March 2024, Kallas announced that she rejected the offer from ALDE to be the alliance's Spitzenkandidat.[13]
Since the 2023 Riigikogu election, the Social Democrats have remained the only party in the government coalition to avoid losing support in polling. This has been attributed to the party members' public statements, especially those of the leader of the party Lauri Läänemets, setting the Social Democrats apart from the two economically liberal parties in the coalition. Moreover, the party gained MPs and members from the defections out of the Centre Party, including seeing its number of MPs increase from 9 to 13.[15][16]
Centre Party
In September 2023 Mihhail Kõlvart, then-mayor of Tallinn, won Centre Party's leadership election. His victory marked a significant change in the party's direction, choosing to focus more on its Russophone electoral base and shifting to socially conservative and economically syncretic positions, with the party becoming seen as one specifically of the niche Russian minority concentrated in the capital Tallinn and Ida-Viru County.[17][18][19] As a result, in the following months the previous party leader Jüri Ratas and several other party members defected to other political forces, leaving Centre Party with one third of its initial parliamentary representation (down to only 6 MPs) and with an increasingly weaker position in the most recent opinion polls.[20][21][22]
Isamaa
Since August 2023, Isamaa has seen its support rocket to unprecedented historic highs.[23][24] These gains in polling are mainly attributed to the party gaining 3 MPs and several other members defecting from the Centre Party, EKRE being seen as too extreme of an option as an alternative to the government coalition and the success of the newly elected party leader, Urmas Reinsalu, in attracting disgruntled Reform Party voters unhappy with its plans to raise taxes.[25][26][27]
Electoral system
Compared to last election, Estonia is entitled to one more MEP has already been assigned in 2020 in the occasion of the redistribution post Brexit. The 7 members are elected through open listproportional representation in a single nationwide constituency with seats allocated through D'Hondt method and no electoral threshold.[28]
Both Estonian citizens and other non-Estonian EU citizens residing in the country are entitled to vote in the European elections in Estonian. No registration is needed for Estonian citizens, while other EU citizens residing in Estonia are required to register with the National Electoral Committee only if it's their first time voting in the country. Estonian citizens residing abroad can choose between three options to vote: in person in an embassy or consulate, online or by mail, with only the latter procedure requiring registration. In addition, those eligible to vote must turn 18 years old by election day at the latest.[29]
Outgoing delegation
The table shows the detailed composition of the Estonian seats at the European Parliament as of 1 February 2024.
The Greens originally announced a full list of 9 candidates but only paid sufficient fee to register two, leading the National Electoral Committee to register only two candidates. The party disputed the decision and sued, and as a legal remedy, the Supreme Court required the National Electoral Committee to register all 9 candidates on 14 May 2024.[39] Several other parties expressed surprise and disagreement over the decision due to the Greens effectively being able to register all of its candidates without having paid the fee for 7 of them.[40]
Debates
2024 European Parliament election debates in Estonia
The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The seats the result would produce is shown below the result for each party.
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