Next Irish general election

Next Irish general election
	174 seats in Dáil Éireann; 88 seats needed for a majority
Micheál Martin; Fianna Fáil

The next Irish general election to elect the 35th Dáil must be held no later than January 2030.

Date of election

The 34th Dáil first met on 18 December 2024. Electoral law provides that the "same Dáil shall not continue for a longer period than five years from the date of its first meeting".^[1] It must therefore be dissolved no later than 17 December 2029. The taoiseach may advise the president to dissolve at any time. If a taoiseach has ceased to retain the support of the majority of the Dáil, the president may in their absolute discretion refuse to dissolve the Dáil. To date, no president has refused to dissolve the Dáil.

When the Dáil is dissolved, the Clerk of the Dáil must issue a writ of election to the returning officer for each constituency.^[2] The election must take place on a date set by the Minister for Housing, Local Government and Heritage 18 to 25 days (disregarding any excluded day, being Sundays, public holidays and Good Friday) after the writs have been issued.^[3]^[4]^[5]

Electoral system

There are currently 174 TDs returned in 43 Dáil constituencies of between three and five seats each. The Electoral Commission will be required to review the size of the Dáil and the arrangement of constituencies after the 2027 census.

Under the system of single transferable vote (STV), each voter may mark any number of the candidates in order of preference. The quota is determined at the first count in each constituency by dividing the number of valid ballots by one more than the number of seats (for example, a quarter of the valid ballots in a three-seat constituency, a fifth of those in a four-seat constituency, and a sixth of those in a five-seat constituency) and then adding one vote. Any candidate reaching or exceeding the quota is elected.^[6]

If in the first count fewer candidates reach the quota than the number of seats to be filled, if any successful candidates have more votes than the quota, their surplus is distributed to remaining candidates based on the next usable marked preference on the ballot papers. If it still happens that fewer candidates have reached the quota than the number of seats to be filled, the last-placed candidate is excluded from the count and those ballot papers are transferred to the next usable marked preference. This is repeated until sufficient candidates have reached the quota to fill the available seats, or where a seat remains to be filled in a constituency and no candidate is capable of achieving a quota as there is nobody left to eliminate for a distribution, then the highest place candidate, even if not having quota, is deemed elected.^[7]

The Ceann Comhairle (currently Verona Murphy) immediately before the dissolution of the 34th Dáil will automatically be deemed to be elected a member of the 35th Dáil. This is provided for under the Constitution and electoral law.^[8]

Opinion polls

Graphical summary

Polls

Last date of polling	Commissioner	Polling firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Sources	FF	FG	SF	SD	Lab	Aon	II	GP	PBP–S	O/I^{[nb 1]}
Last date of polling	Commissioner	Polling firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Sources										O/I^{[nb 1]}
22 Jan 2025	Business Post	Red C	1,003	3.1	^{[p 1]}	22	20	22	7	3	4	3	3	2	13
11 Jan 2025	Sunday Independent	Ireland Thinks	1,206	2.9	^{[p 2]}	23.8	22.3	19.3	7.3	3.8	5.3	4.9	2.3	2.2	8.8
29 November 2024	General election	–	–	–	–	21.9	20.8	19.0	4.8	4.7	3.9	3.6	3.0	2.8	15.5

Notes

^ The figure for "Others and Independents" is the remainder when all others are removed. As with all such calculations, the figure shown may be slightly inaccurate due to rounding effects.

References

Notes

Poll references

^ Thomas, Cónal (25 January 2025). "Sinn Féin bounce back but government parties in strong position as new coalition gets to work". Business Post. Retrieved 26 January 2025.
^ Gataveckaite, Gabija (11 January 2025). "Post-election bounce for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael but support for Independents falls". Sunday Independent. Retrieved 13 January 2025.

General references

^ Electoral Act 1992, s. 33: Maximum duration of Dáil (No. 23 of 1992, s. 33). Enacted on 5 November 1992. Act of the Oireachtas. Retrieved from Irish Statute Book on 8 June 2021.
^ Electoral Act 1992, s. 39: Issue and return of writs (No. 23 of 1992, s. 39). Enacted on 5 November 1992. Act of the Oireachtas. Retrieved from Irish Statute Book on 8 June 2021.
^ Electoral Act 1992, s. 96: Times of poll (No. 23 of 1992, s. 96). Enacted on 5 November 1992. Act of the Oireachtas. Retrieved from Irish Statute Book on 8 June 2021.; Electoral (Amendment) Act 2001, s. 23: Amendment of section 96 of Principal Act (No. 38 of 2001, s. 23). Enacted on 24 October 2001. Act of the Oireachtas. Retrieved from Irish Statute Book on 8 June 2021.
^ "Dáil Éireann". Citizens Information. 30 August 2023. Archived from the original on 18 March 2024. Retrieved 2 July 2024.
^ "Constitution of Ireland". Irish Statute Book. January 2020. Archived from the original on 23 April 2022. Retrieved 2 July 2024.
^ A Guide to Ireland's PR-STV Voting System (PDF) (Report). Ireland Department of Housing, Planning & Local Government. November 2018.
^ "Dáil Éireann (House of Representatives)". Inter-Parliamentary Union. Archived from the original on 7 March 2016. Retrieved 24 March 2019.; "Electoral Act 1992 [Part XIX]". Irish Statute Book. 5 November 1992. Archived from the original on 14 January 2020. Retrieved 15 January 2020.
^ Electoral Act 1992, s. 36: Re-election of outgoing Chairman of Dáil (No. 23 of 1992, s. 36). Enacted on 5 November 1992. Act of the Oireachtas. Archived from the original on 8 December 2015. Retrieved from Irish Statute Book on 16 June 2020.

[remainder-9] The figure for "Others and Independents" is the remainder when all others are removed. As with all such calculations, the figure shown may be slightly inaccurate due to rounding effects.

[10] Thomas, Cónal (25 January 2025). "Sinn Féin bounce back but government parties in strong position as new coalition gets to work". Business Post. Retrieved 26 January 2025.

[11] Gataveckaite, Gabija (11 January 2025). "Post-election bounce for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael but support for Independents falls". Sunday Independent. Retrieved 13 January 2025.

[1] Electoral Act 1992, s. 33: Maximum duration of Dáil (No. 23 of 1992, s. 33). Enacted on 5 November 1992. Act of the Oireachtas. Retrieved from Irish Statute Book on 8 June 2021.

[2] Electoral Act 1992, s. 39: Issue and return of writs (No. 23 of 1992, s. 39). Enacted on 5 November 1992. Act of the Oireachtas. Retrieved from Irish Statute Book on 8 June 2021.

[3] Electoral Act 1992, s. 96: Times of poll (No. 23 of 1992, s. 96). Enacted on 5 November 1992. Act of the Oireachtas. Retrieved from Irish Statute Book on 8 June 2021.; Electoral (Amendment) Act 2001, s. 23: Amendment of section 96 of Principal Act (No. 38 of 2001, s. 23). Enacted on 24 October 2001. Act of the Oireachtas. Retrieved from Irish Statute Book on 8 June 2021.

[4] "Dáil Éireann". Citizens Information. 30 August 2023. Archived from the original on 18 March 2024. Retrieved 2 July 2024.

[5] "Constitution of Ireland". Irish Statute Book. January 2020. Archived from the original on 23 April 2022. Retrieved 2 July 2024.

[6] A Guide to Ireland's PR-STV Voting System (PDF) (Report). Ireland Department of Housing, Planning & Local Government. November 2018.

[7] "Dáil Éireann (House of Representatives)". Inter-Parliamentary Union. Archived from the original on 7 March 2016. Retrieved 24 March 2019.; "Electoral Act 1992 [Part XIX]". Irish Statute Book. 5 November 1992. Archived from the original on 14 January 2020. Retrieved 15 January 2020.

[8] Electoral Act 1992, s. 36: Re-election of outgoing Chairman of Dáil (No. 23 of 1992, s. 36). Enacted on 5 November 1992. Act of the Oireachtas. Archived from the original on 8 December 2015. Retrieved from Irish Statute Book on 16 June 2020.

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