2019 United Kingdom general election in Scotland

2019 United Kingdom general election
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All 59 Scottish seats to the House of Commons
Turnout	68.1% 1.6pp
	Coloured according to the winning party's vote share in each constituency

The 2019 United Kingdom general election was held on Thursday 12 December 2019,^[1] two and a half years after the previous general election in June 2017. The Scottish National Party (SNP) received the most votes (45%, up 8.1% from the previous election) and won 48^{[n 1]} out of 59 seats—a gain of 13 over those won in 2017, and 81% of the Scottish seats in the House of Commons.^[2]

SNP gains came at the expense of both Labour and the Conservatives. The Tories remained the largest unionist party in Scotland even though they lost more than half of their Scottish seats, winning six compared to thirteen in 2017. Labour was reduced to only one seat, down from seven. The Liberal Democrats won four Scottish seats for no net change, although party leader Jo Swinson (herself the only major party leader to stand for election in Scotland) was unseated in her bid for re-election by her SNP challenger.

Labour's vote share was its lowest at a Westminster election in Scotland since December 1910.^[3]^[4]

Political context

The June 2017 general election in Scotland was fought in the aftermath of the 2016 Scottish Parliament election, in which the SNP won a third term in government but lost its overall majority in the Scottish Parliament (although the proportional electoral system at Holyrood was intentionally designed to make it very difficult for any one party to gain a majority). The 2016 EU referendum was held a month later on Thursday 23 June, and the final result was for the United Kingdom to leave the EU, although Scotland voted 62.0% Remain. Negotiations then began after the invocation of Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union in March 2017, which was expected to dominate the snap general election campaign.^[5]

In March First Minister Nicola Sturgeon called for a second independence referendum due to Scotland's vote to remain in the EU the previous year. The result was the issue dominated the 2017 general election and, although the SNP remained the largest party, their number of seats was much reduced, with the Scottish Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats gaining a total of 21 seats.^[6] Former First Minister Alex Salmond and Westminster leader Angus Robertson were among those who lost their seats.^[6]

In the 2019 European Parliament election, Scottish Labour lost its two MEPs, UKIP lost its seat, the SNP increased its number to three, the Scottish Conservatives held theirs and the Brexit Party and Liberal Democrats gained one each.

Opinion polling

Pollster/client(s)	Date(s) conducted	Sample size	SNP	Con	Lab	Lib Dem	Green	UKIP	Change UK	Brexit	Other	Lead
Pollster/client(s)	Date(s) conducted	Sample size	SNP	Con	Lab	Lib Dem	Green	UKIP	Change UK	Brexit	Other	Lead
2019 general election	12 Dec 2019	–	45.0%	25.1%	18.6%	9.5%	1.0%	0.1%	–	0.5%	0.1%	19.9%
Survation/The Courier	10–11 Dec 2019	1,012	43%	28%	20%	7%	1%	–	–	1%	–	15%
YouGov (MRP)	4–10 Dec 2019	^[7]	41%	27%	20%	10%	1%	–	–	1%	–	14%
Panelbase/Sunday Times	3–6 Dec 2019	1,020	39%	29%	21%	10%	1%	–	–	0%	0%	10%
YouGov/The Times	29 Nov–3 Dec 2019	1,002	44%	28%	15%	12%	1%	–	–	0%	0%	16%
Ipsos MORI/STV	19–25 Nov 2019	1,046	44%	26%	16%	11%	2%	–	–	<1%	–	18%
Panelbase/The Sunday Times	20–22 Nov 2019	1,009	40%	28%	20%	11%	<1%	–	–	<1%	<1%	12%
	15 Nov	Nominations for candidates close (final candidates announced)
	6 Nov	Parliament dissolved and official campaign period begins
YouGov	23–25 Oct 2019	1,060	42%	22%	12%	13%	4%	0%	0%	6%	0%	20%
Panelbase/The Sunday Times	9–11 Oct 2019	1,003	39%	21%	19%	13%	2%	–	–	5%	–	18%
YouGov/The Times	30 Aug–3 Sep 2019	1,059	43%	20%	15%	12%	4%	0%	0%	6%	0%	23%
	29 Aug 2019	Ruth Davidson resigns as leader of the Scottish Conservatives^[8]
Panelbase/The Sunday Times	18–20 Jun 2019	1,024	38%	18%	17%	13%	2%	<1%	<1%	9%	–	20%
Panelbase/The Sunday Times	14–17 May 2019	1,021	38%	18%	19%	10%	3%	1%	2%	9%	<1%	19%
YouGov/The Times	24–26 Apr 2019	1,029	43%	20%	17%	9%	3%	1%	2%	4%	0%	23%
Panelbase/The Sunday Times	18–24 Apr 2019	1,018	38%	22%	21%	6%	2%	2%	3%	5%	<1%	16%
Survation/Scotland in Union	18–23 Apr 2019	1,012	41%	22%	24%	8%	–	–	–	–	5%	17%
Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland	28 Feb–6 Mar 2019	1,002	37%	27%	22%	7%	2%	2%	2%	–	<1%	10%
Survation/Scottish Daily Mail	1–4 Mar 2019	1,011	40%	24%	23%	8%	–	–	–	–	4%	16%
Panelbase/The Sunday Times	30 Nov–5 Dec 2018	1,028	37%	26%	26%	6%	2%	2%	–	–	<1%	11%
Survation/Scotland in Union	9–13 Nov 2018	1,013	39%	26%	24%	8%	–	–	–	–	3%	13%
Panelbase/Constitutional Commission	2–7 Nov 2018	1,050	37%	28%	25%	7%	2%	2%	–	–	3%	9%
Survation/Channel 4	20 Oct–2 Nov 2018	1,734	40%	27%	23%	7%	1%	1%	–	–	1%	13%
Survation/Daily Record	18–21 Oct 2018	1,017	36%	27%	26%	7%	1%	–	–	–	1%	9%
Survation/SNP	3–5 Oct 2018	1,013	37%	28%	26%	6%	–	–	–	–	2%	9%
Panelbase/The Sunday Times	28 Sep–4 Oct 2018	1,024	38%	27%	24%	6%	2%	2%	–	–	<1%	11%
Survation/The Sunday Post	28 Sep–2 Oct 2018	1,036	41%	26%	24%	7%	–	–	–	–	3%	15%
Survation/Daily Record	5–10 Jul 2018	1,004	42%	24%	23%	8%	–	–	–	–	3%	18%
Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland	21–26 Jun 2018	1,018	38%	27%	25%	7%	2%	<1%	–	–	<1%	11%
Panelbase/The Sunday Times	8–13 Jun 2018	1,021	38%	27%	27%	6%	2%	<1%	–	–	<1%	11%
YouGov/The Times	1–5 Jun 2018	1,075	40%	27%	23%	7%	2%	1%	–	–	1%	13%
Panelbase/The Sunday Times	23–28 Mar 2018	1,037	36%	28%	27%	6%	2%	1%	–	–	<1%	8%
Ipsos MORI/STV	5–11 Mar 2018	1,050	39%	25%	26%	6%	4%	0%	–	–	0%	13%
Survation/Daily Record	24–28 Jan 2018	1,029	39%	24%	27%	7%	–	–	–	–	3%	12%
YouGov/The Times	12–16 Jan 2018	1,002	36%	23%	28%	6%	3%	3%	–	–	0%	8%
Survation/The Sunday Post	1–5 Dec 2017	1,006	38%	24%	29%	7%	–	–	–	–	3%	9%
Survation/Daily Record	27–30 Nov 2017	1,017	37%	25%	28%	7%	–	–	–	–	3%	9%
	18 Nov 2017	Richard Leonard officially becomes leader of Scottish Labour^[9]
YouGov/The Times	2–5 Oct 2017	1,135	40%	23%	30%	5%	1%	1%	–	–	0%	10%
Survation/Scottish Daily Mail	8–12 Sep 2017	1,016	39%	26%	26%	7%	–	–	–	–	2%	13%
Panelbase/The Sunday Times	31 Aug–7 Sep 2017	1,021	41%	27%	24%	6%	2%	–	–	–	–	14%
2017 general election	8 Jun 2017	–	36.9%	28.6%	27.1%	6.8%	0.2%	0.2%	–	–	0.3%	8.3%

Seat projections

Pollster/client(s)	Date(s) conducted	Con	Lab	SNP	Lib Dem	Green	Brexit	Other
Pollster/client(s)	Date(s) conducted							Other
2019 general election	12 December 2019	6	1	48	4	0	0	0
YouGov MRP	10 December 2019	9	5	41	4	0	0	0
Ipsos MORI Scotland/STV Archived 28 November 2019 at the Wayback Machine	28 November 2019	6	1	48	4	0	0	0
YouGov MRP	27 November 2019	11	2	42	4	0	0	0
2017 general election	8 June 2017	13	7	35	4	0	0	0

Campaign events

Television debates

Like the rest of the United Kingdom, Scottish broadcasters hosted television debates. On 20 November, BBC Scotland's flagship political programme, Debate Night, moderated by Stephen Jardine, hosted a Young Voter's Special with representatives from the main parties where they debated in front of an audience of voters aged under 30. On 3 December, STV hosted a television debate moderated by Colin Mackay^[10] and BBC Scotland announced that they would host a debate on 10 December, two days before the election, moderated by Sarah Smith.

Date	Organisers	Venue	Moderators	P Present S Standing-in NI Not invited A Absent I Invited
				Con	Lab	SNP	LD	Green	Brexit

20 November	BBC Scotland (Debate Night)^{[n 2]}	Scottish Youth Theatre, Glasgow	Stephen Jardine	S Gallacher	S Sweeney	S Linden	S Cole-Hamilton	P Slater	NI
26 November	Sky News	City Observatory, Edinburgh	Adam Boulton	S Greene	P Leonard	S Blackford	P Rennie	A Harvie	NI
2 December	BBC (Victoria Derbyshire Election Debate)	North Berwick, East Lothian	Victoria Derbyshire	S Hoy	S Whitfield	S MacAskill	S O'Riordan	NI	NI
3 December^[10]	STV	STV Pacific Quay, Glasgow	Colin Mackay	P Carlaw	P Leonard	P Sturgeon	P Rennie	NI	NI
10 December	BBC Scotland	BBC Pacific Quay, Glasgow	Sarah Smith	P Carlaw	P Leonard	P Sturgeon	P Rennie	NI	NI

The Scottish National Party have been represented in UK-wide television debates in addition due to being the third largest party in the House of Commons.

Reaction

Date(s) administered	Poll source	Sample size	Carlaw	Leonard	Sturgeon	Rennie	Lead
Date(s) administered	Poll source	Sample size					Lead
STV Leaders Debate
3 December 2019	STV News Archived 3 December 2019 at the Wayback Machine^{[n 3]}	7,170	10%	5%	80%	5%	70%
3 December 2019	HeraldScotland	9,115	7%	4%	87%	2%	80%
BBC Leaders Debate
10 December 2019	HeraldScotland	2,834	7%	17%	72%	4%	55%

Leader's interviews

In addition to television debates, BBC Scotland and STV also interviewed Scottish party leaders on The Nine and Scotland Tonight in the run-up to the general election, alongside guest commentary too.

On 4 December, the four main Scottish party leaders took part in leaders interviews with fictional character Chief Commissioner Cameron Mickelson from the BBC Scotland sitcom, Scot Squad.^[11]

Results


Party^[12]		Seats					Votes
Party^[12]		Total	Gains	Losses	Net +/-	% seats	Total votes	% votes	Change
	SNP	48^{[n 1]}	14	1	13	81.36	1,242,380	45.0	8.1
	Conservative	6	0	7	7	10.17	692,939	25.1	3.5
	Labour	1	0	6	6	1.69	511,838	18.6	8.5
	Liberal Democrats	4	1	1		6.77	263,417	9.5	2.8
	Scottish Green	0	0	0		—	28,122	1.0	0.8
	Brexit Party	0	0	0		—	13,243	0.5	new
	UKIP	0	0	0		—	3,303	0.1	0.1
	Others	0	0	0		—	3,819	0.1	0.1
							2,759,061	68.1	1.6

Votes summary

Popular vote

SNP			45.0%
Conservative			25.1%
Labour			18.6%
Liberal Democrats			9.5%
Greens			1.0%
Brexit Party			0.5%
UKIP			0.1%
Other			0.1%

Parliament seats

SNP			81.4%
Conservative			10.2%
Liberal Democrats			6.8%
Labour			1.7%

List of constituencies by party

2019 UK general election (Scottish Westminster constituencies)
Party		Constituency
	SNP	Aberdeen North Aberdeen South Airdrie and Shotts Angus Argyll and Bute Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock Central Ayrshire Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Dundee East Dundee West Dunfermline and West Fife East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow East Dunbartonshire East Lothian East Renfrewshire Edinburgh East Edinburgh North and Leith Edinburgh South West Falkirk Glasgow Central Glasgow East Glasgow North Glasgow North East Glasgow North West Glasgow South Glasgow South West Glenrothes Gordon Inverclyde Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey Kilmarnock and Loudoun Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath^{[n 4]} Lanark and Hamilton East Linlithgow and East Falkirk Livingston Midlothian Motherwell and Wishaw Na h-Eileanan an Iar North Ayrshire and Arran Ochil and South Perthshire Paisley and Renfrewshire North Paisley and Renfrewshire South Perth and North Perthshire Rutherglen and Hamilton West Ross, Skye and Lochaber Stirling West Dunbartonshire
	Conservative	Banff and Buchan Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Dumfries and Galloway Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale Moray West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine
	Liberal Democrats	Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross Edinburgh West North East Fife Orkney and Shetland
	Labour	Edinburgh South

Target seats

Scottish Conservatives

Rank	Constituency		Swing required	Conservatives' place 2019
1	Perth and North Perthshire	SNP	0.02%	2nd	SNP
2	Lanark and Hamilton East	SNP	0.26%	2nd	SNP
3	Edinburgh South West	SNP	1.11%	2nd	SNP
4	Argyll and Bute	SNP	1.38%	2nd	SNP
5	East Lothian	Labour	3.24%	3rd	SNP
6	Linlithgow and Falkirk East	SNP	3.63%	2nd	SNP
7	Ayrshire North and Arran	SNP	3.66%	2nd	SNP
8	Edinburgh North and Leith	SNP	3.9%	3rd	SNP

Scottish Labour

Rank	Constituency		Swing required	Labour's place 2019
1	Glasgow South West	SNP	0.08%	2nd	SNP
2	Glasgow East	SNP	0.10%	2nd	SNP
3	Airdrie and Shotts	SNP	0.26%	2nd	SNP
4	Lanark and Hamilton East	SNP	0.36%	3rd	SNP
5	Motherwell and Wishaw	SNP	0.38%	2nd	SNP
6	Inverclyde	SNP	0.49%	2nd	SNP
7	Dunfermline and West Fife	SNP	0.81%	2nd	SNP
8	Edinburgh North and Leith	SNP	1.44%	2nd	SNP

Scottish Liberal Democrats

Rank	Constituency		Swing Required	Liberal Democrats' place 2019
1	North East Fife	SNP	<0.01%	1st	Liberal Democrats
2	Ross, Skye and Lochaber	SNP	9.67%	2nd	SNP
3	Argyll and Bute	SNP	15.04%	3rd	SNP
4	Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey	SNP	18.26%	3rd	SNP

Scottish National Party

Rank	Constituency		Swing required	SNP's place 2019
1	Stirling	Conservative	0.15%	1st	SNP
2	Rutherglen and Hamilton West	Labour	0.26%	1st	SNP
3	Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath	Labour	0.28%	1st	SNP
4	Glasgow North East	Labour	0.38%	1st	SNP
5	Midlothian	Labour	0.98%	1st	SNP
6	Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill	Labour	1.76%	1st	SNP
7	Gordon	Conservative	2.43%	1st	SNP
8	East Lothian	Labour	2.76%	1st	SNP
9	Edinburgh West	Liberal Democrats	2.83%	2nd	Liberal Democrats

Footnotes

^ ^a ^b ^c Includes Neale Hanvey, who was suspended from the party at the time of his election and thus took his seat as an independent.
^ Young Voter's Special with representatives from the main parties where they debated in front of an audience of voters aged under 30
^ Social polling conducted by STV News shortly after the debate
^ The seat was won by Neale Hanvey, who was suspended from the party at the time of his election and thus took his seat as an independent.

References

^ "UK set for 12 December general election". BBC News. 29 October 2019.
^ "Sturgeon says SNP landslide 'mandate for indyref2'". BBC News. 13 December 2019. Retrieved 13 December 2019.
^ Jamieson, David (17 December 2019). "Analysis: Gathering storm – why 2020 is set to be a year of tension between Edinburgh and London". CommonSpace. Retrieved 21 December 2019.
^ Riddoch, Lesley (19 December 2019). "Lesley Riddoch: London is looking at Scotland with envy". The National. Retrieved 21 December 2019.
^ Fidler, Stephen (18 April 2017). "Brexit Set to Dominate U.K.'s Snap Election". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 21 April 2017.
^ ^a ^b "General election 2017: SNP lose a third of seats amid Tory surge". BBC News. 9 June 2017. Archived from the original on 4 June 2021.
^ This was a UK-wide poll, and the number of participants in Scotland was not recorded.
^ "Ruth Davidson quits as Scottish Tory leader citing Brexit and family". The Guardian. 29 August 2019. Archived from the original on 3 September 2019. Retrieved 3 September 2019.
^ "Richard Leonard to lead Scottish Labour". BBC News. 18 November 2017. Archived from the original on 7 April 2018. Retrieved 21 May 2017.
^ ^a ^b "STV to host General Election debate with Scottish leaders". STV News. 16 November 2019. Retrieved 19 November 2019.
^ "Scot Squad chief to grill Scotland's leaders ahead of general election". BBC News. 24 November 2019. Retrieved 16 March 2023.
^ "Results of the 2019 General Election in Scotland". BBC News.

[hanvey-1] Includes Neale Hanvey, who was suspended from the party at the time of his election and thus took his seat as an independent.

[sturgeonseat-12] Young Voter's Special with representatives from the main parties where they debated in front of an audience of voters aged under 30

[typeofpolling-13] Social polling conducted by STV News shortly after the debate

[hanvey2-16] The seat was won by Neale Hanvey, who was suspended from the party at the time of his election and thus took his seat as an independent.

[2] "UK set for 12 December general election". BBC News. 29 October 2019.

[3] "Sturgeon says SNP landslide 'mandate for indyref2'". BBC News. 13 December 2019. Retrieved 13 December 2019.

[4] Jamieson, David (17 December 2019). "Analysis: Gathering storm – why 2020 is set to be a year of tension between Edinburgh and London". CommonSpace. Retrieved 21 December 2019.

[5] Riddoch, Lesley (19 December 2019). "Lesley Riddoch: London is looking at Scotland with envy". The National. Retrieved 21 December 2019.

[6] Fidler, Stephen (18 April 2017). "Brexit Set to Dominate U.K.'s Snap Election". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 21 April 2017.

[bbc.com-7] "General election 2017: SNP lose a third of seats amid Tory surge". BBC News. 9 June 2017. Archived from the original on 4 June 2021.

[8] This was a UK-wide poll, and the number of participants in Scotland was not recorded.

[9] "Ruth Davidson quits as Scottish Tory leader citing Brexit and family". The Guardian. 29 August 2019. Archived from the original on 3 September 2019. Retrieved 3 September 2019.

[10] "Richard Leonard to lead Scottish Labour". BBC News. 18 November 2017. Archived from the original on 7 April 2018. Retrieved 21 May 2017.

[STV-11] "STV to host General Election debate with Scottish leaders". STV News. 16 November 2019. Retrieved 19 November 2019.

[14] "Scot Squad chief to grill Scotland's leaders ahead of general election". BBC News. 24 November 2019. Retrieved 16 March 2023.

[BBCresults-15] "Results of the 2019 General Election in Scotland". BBC News.

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