Opinion polling
In the run up to the 2021 Japanese general election , various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous general election , held on 22 October 2017 to 31 October 2021.
Graphical summary
The charts below depict party identification polling for the next Japanese general election using a 15-poll moving average.
LDP
CDP
DP
Kōmeitō
JCP
Japan Innovation Party
DPFP
SDP
LP
Reiwa Shinsengumi
Kibō no Tō
N-Koku
CDP
DP
Kōmeitō
JCP
Japan Innovation Party
DPFP
SDP
LP
Reiwa Shinsengumi
Kibō no Tō
N-Koku
Party identification
2021
Fieldwork date
Polling firm
LDP
CDP
Kōmeitō
JCP
Ishin
DPFP
SDP
Reiwa
N-Koku
Others
No party
Und. /no ans.
Lead
31 Oct 2021
2021 general election
34.7
20.0
12.4
7.3
14.0
4.5
1.8
3.9
1.4
1.7
—
—
14.7
23–24 Oct
go2senkyo
32.2
14.8
6.1
4.9
6.9
1.1
1.0
0.6
0.3
32.2
Tied
22-24 Oct
NHK
38.6
8.0
4.3
2.9
3.5
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.2
0.2
31.4
8.5
7.2
19–20 Oct
Mainichi Shimbun
41
14
4
6
6
1
1
2
1
1
23
18
19–20 Oct
Asahi Shimbun
34
7
4
3
3
1
0
0
0
1
34
13
Tied
16–17 Oct
Kyodo News
49.1
10.4
3.1
4.7
4.3
18.8
30.3
16–17 Oct
go2senkyo [ a]
31.6
11.8
4.7
5.6
4.0
1.0
1.2
0.3
0.3
39.4
7.8
16–17 Oct
ANN
49.9
12.1
4.1
4.4
2.3
1.2
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.8
23.6
26.3
15–17 Oct
NHK
38.8
6.6
3.9
2.8
2.3
1.0
0.6
0.6
0.1
0.2
36.2
6.9
2.6
14–15 Oct
Yomiuri Shimbun
40
6
3
3
3
1
1
0
0
38
5
2
9–10 Oct
Green Ship Archived 2021-10-17 at the Wayback Machine
42.92
13.73
4.82
5.62
4.96
23.23
19.7
9–10 Oct
FNN-Sankei
45.3
6.4
2.4
2.5
2.6
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.2
37.1
2.1
8.2
9–10 Oct
JNN
41.5
5.7
3.1
2.3
2.5
0.7
0.5
0.3
0
0.4
38.6
4.4
2.9
8–10 Oct
NHK
41.2
6.1
4.1
2.7
1.8
0.7
0.6
0.2
0.1
0.2
36.1
6.2
5.1
4–5 Oct
Asahi Shimbun
37
5
3
3
2
0
0
0
0
0
40
10
3
4–5 Oct
Yomiuri Shimbun
43
7
3
3
2
1
0
0
0
36
4
7
4–5 Oct
Nikkei-TV Tokyo
51
8
4
5
3
1
27
24
4 Oct
Fumio Kishida assumes office as the Prime Minister and President of the LDP .
23–25 Sep
Nikkei
47
8
3
3
3
1
1
30
4
17
18–19 Sep
ANN
49.4
9.9
4.2
4.1
3.1
1.2
0.3
0.4
0.0
0.7
26.7
22.7
18–19 Sep
FNN-Sankei
43.5
6.9
3.2
2.1
1.6
0.3
0.3
0.7
0.0
0.4
34.5
6.5
9
18 Sep
Mainichi Shimbun
37
10
4
4
5
1
2
34
3
10–13 Sep
Jiji Press Archived 2021-10-07 at the Wayback Machine
26.5
3.0
5.0
2.2
1.7
0
0.2
0.2
0.2
59.0
32.5
11–12 Sep
Asahi Shimbun
37
5
3
3
1
0
0
0
0
0
43
8
6
10–12 Sep
NHK
37.6
5.5
3.6
2.9
1.1
0.2
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.3
40.2
7.4
2.6
9-11 Sep
Nikkei
48
8
2
3
3
1
0
1
0
31
3
17
4–5 Sep
Yomiuri Shimbun
36
7
3
3
2
0
0
0
43
5
7
3 Sep
Yoshihide Suga announces he will not seek re-election as President of the LDP .
28 Aug
Mainichi Shimbun
26
10
3
5
8
1
2
42
16
21–22 Aug
FNN-Sankei
35.6
6.6
3.5
2.4
3.0
0.6
0.4
0.7
0.3
0.2
44.6
4.2
9.0
21–22 Aug
ANN
46.6
8.1
2.9
4.1
2.6
0.5
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.8
33.6
13.0
14–15 Aug
go2senkyo [ a]
29.1
11.1
4.1
5.6
3.5
0.5
0.6
0.9
0.0
44.5
15.4
7–9 Aug
Yomiuri-NNN
32
5
3
3
2
0
0
0
0
49
17
7–9 Aug
NHK
33.4
6.4
3.7
3.3
1.7
0.8
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.3
42.8
6.4
9.4
6–9 Aug
Jiji Press Archived 2021-08-14 at the Wayback Machine
23.7
3.9
4.5
1.3
2.0
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.0
61.4
37.7
7–8 Aug
Asahi Shimbun
32
6
2
3
1
1
0
0
0
0
47
8
15
7–8 Aug
JNN
32.4
5.4
3.5
2.1
2.8
0.6
0.2
0.6
0
0.2
48.7
3.5
16.3
23–25 Jul
Nikkei
38
9
4
4
4
1
35
3
3
17–18 Jul
ANN
42.3
8.8
3.9
2.6
2.7
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.8
37.5
4.8
17–18 Jul
FNN-Sankei
36.3
8.0
2.4
3.7
2.2
0.7
0.7
0.3
0.0
0.4
41.0
4.2
4.7
17 Jul
Mainichi Shimbun
28
10
4
7
6
1
1
1
0
2
39
11
9–12 Jul
Jiji Press Archived 2021-07-26 at the Wayback Machine
21.4
4.5
2.5
1.8
2.0
0.5
0.2
0.3
0.1
63.9
42.5
10–11 Jul
go2senkyo [ a]
28.6
12.0
4.5
7.1
3.2
1.1
1.1
0.4
0.1
41.8
13.2
9-11 Jul
Yomiuri-NNN
36
5
4
3
2
1
0
0
0
0
43
5
7
9-11 Jul
NHK
34.9
6.0
3.3
3.3
2.1
0.8
0.3
0.2
0.8
41.9
6.3
7.0
3–4 Jul
JNN
33.6
6.1
3.5
3.4
2.1
0.6
0.4
0.4
0
0.3
46.1
3.6
12.5
25–27 Jun
Nikkei
43
8
3
4
4
1
1
0
0
—
31
4
12
19–20 Jun
ANN
41.8
8.4
3.3
3.6
3.0
1.5
0.4
1.0
0.0
1.0
36.0
5.8
19–20 Jun
FNN-Sankei
37.0
8.2
2.5
2.0
2.8
0.9
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.2
43.2
2.5
6.2
19–20 Jun
Asahi Shimbun
31
6
4
3
2
1
0
0
0
0
45
8
14
19 Jun
Mainichi Shimbun
30
10
4
6
6
1
—
2
40
—
10
11–14 Jun
Jiji Press Archived 2021-07-11 at the Wayback Machine
22.8
2.9
3.7
1.7
1.2
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.1
63.2
40.4
12–13 Jun
go2senkyo [ a]
25.4
13.9
4.8
5.9
2.9
0.7
0.9
0.6
0.1
44.7
19.3
11–13 Jun
NHK
35.8
6.4
3.5
2.8
2.1
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.5
0
40.6
7.4
4.8
5–6 Jun
JNN
34.3
5.8
3.5
2.3
2.7
0.5
0.2
0.7
0.2
0.3
43.9
5.5
10.4
4–6 Jun
Yomiuri-NNN
33
5
3
3
2
0
1
0
0
48
4
15
28–30 May
Nikkei
42
8
4
3
4
0
0
1
0
—
33
5
9
15–16 May
go2senkyo [ a]
26.2
14.3
4.1
7.3
3.6
1.2
0.7
1.4
0.4
—
40.7
—
14.5
15–16 May
FNN-Sankei
35.3
7.7
3.1
1.9
3
0.8
0.3
0.3
0.1
—
44.9
2.2
9.6
15–16 May
ANN
44.9
12.2
2.6
3.7
2.8
1.0
0.6
0.2
0.5
1.2
30.3
14.6
15–16 May
Asahi Shimbun
30
7
3
2
2
1
0
0
0
0
47
8
17
15–16 May
Kyodo News
41.9
8.6
4.5
3.4
4.6
1.2
0.4
1
0.7
—
32.1
—
9.8
8–9 May
JNN
37.2
6.0
3.8
2.2
2.0
1.1
0
0.1
0.1
1.0
42.4
4.3
5.2
7–10 May
Jiji Press Archived 2021-05-20 at the Wayback Machine
21.4
4.4
2.6
1.5
1.9
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.2
—
64.8
—
43.4
7–9 May
Yomiuri-NNN
37
7
2
2
2
1
0
0
1
44
4
7
7–9 May
NHK
33.7
5.8
2.9
3.1
1.6
0.6
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.5
43.8
7.4
10.1
23–25 Apr
Nikkei
47
9
3
3
4
1
1
1
0
0
29
3
18
18 Apr
Mainichi Shimbun
31
11
4
4
8
1
0
2
1
1
36
—
5
17–18 Apr
FNN-Sankei
39.2
5.5
3.2
2.9
3.3
0.7
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.2
38.7
4.2
0.5
17–18 Apr
ANN
45.1
9.0
3.4
3.4
3.0
0.5
1.0
1
0.1
1.6
32.4
—
12.7
9–12 Apr
Jiji Press Archived 2021-05-20 at the Wayback Machine
22.5
4.2
3.8
1.8
1.6
0.3
0.2
0.3
0
—
62.2
—
39.7
3 Mar – 12 Apr
Asahi Shimbun
38
8
4
2
5
1
0
1
0
—
41
0
3
10–11 Apr
Asahi Shimbun
35
6
2
3
2
1
0
0
0
0
43
8
8
9-11 Apr
NHK
37.4
6.3
4.1
2.7
1.5
0.7
0.3
0.3
—
0.7
39.7
6.4
2.3
3–4 Apr
JNN
35.6
4.9
3.1
2.6
1.4
0.5
0.3
0.5
0.1
0.5
47.0
3.6
11.4
2–4 Apr
Yomiuri-NNN
39
5
3
2
2
0
0
0
0
1
43
4
4
26–28 Mar
Nikkei
43
11
4
4
4
1
0
0
0
0
29
4
14
20–21 Mar
Asahi Shimbun
33
5
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
0
46
7
13
20–21 Mar
ANN
43.7
10.5
3.9
4.5
2.2
1.2
0.3
0.1
0.4
1.3
31.9
11.8
13–14 Mar
FNN-Sankei
40.1
6.5
4.4
2.1
2.5
1.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.9
39.9
3
0.2
6–7 Mar
JNN
38.3
4.8
2.0
2.4
3.1
0.9
0.3
0.5
0.4
0.3
41.4
5.5
3.1
5–8 Mar
Jiji Press Archived 2021-05-20 at the Wayback Machine
23
4.8
3.5
1.7
2.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.1
62.4
—
39.4
5–7 Mar
NHK
35.6
4.5
3.2
3.1
2.1
0.8
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
40.1
9.5
4.5
5–7 Mar
Yomiuri-NNN
40
6
3
2
3
0
1
1
—
0
42
3
2
26–28 Feb
Nikkei
45
11
2
5
3
1
1
27
4
18
20–21 Feb
FNN-Sankei
38.6
8
2.6
2.3
3.9
1
0.1
0.6
0.2
0.8
39.7
2.1
1.1
13–14 Feb
Asahi Shimbun
33
7
4
3
2
1
—
0
0
0
44
6
11
13–14 Feb
ANN
45.2
11.8
3.5
2.5
2.9
0.6
0.6
0.2
0
1.4
31.3
13.9
6–7 Feb
JNN
36.7
6.2
3.7
2.4
3.1
0.7
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.6
42.3
3.2
5.6
5–7 Feb
NHK
35.1
6.8
3
3
2.6
0.9
0.6
0.4
0.2
—
42.3
5.1
7.2
5–7 Feb
Yomiuri-NNN
37
5
4
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
42
5
5
4–7 Feb
Jiji Press Archived 2021-05-17 at the Wayback Machine
25.5
3.8
2.4
1.6
2.1
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.2
—
61.2
—
35.7
29–31 Jan
Nikkei
44
9
5
5
3
1
30
2
14
23–24 Jan
FNN-Sankei
39.1
8.9
3.6
2.5
4
0.9
0.3
0.9
0.5
0.4
38.5
0.3
0.6
16–17 Jan
ANN
45.7
7.9
4.4
3.1
2.5
1.7
0.7
0.3
0.4
4.1
29.2
16.5
15–17 Jan
Yomiuri-NNN
37
5
3
2
1
1
0
0
0
1
46
3
9
9-11 Jan
NHK
37.8
6.6
3
2.9
1.1
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.2
0.5
40.5
6
2.7
8–11 Jan
Jiji Press Archived 2021-02-13 at the Wayback Machine
23.7
3.1
3.9
1.7
1.6
0.5
0.8
0.2
0.1
—
62.8
—
39.1
9–10 Jan
JNN
34.2
5.9
3.2
2.4
2.0
0.8
0.2
0.3
0.6
1.0
46.2
3.3
12.0
9–10 Jan
Kyodo News
41.2
7.8
3.9
3.3
4.3
0.8
0.1
1.1
0.4
—
34.6
—
6.6
22 Oct 2017
2017 general election
33.3
19.9
12.5
7.9
6.1
17.4[ b]
0.8
—[ c]
—
1.3
—
—
13.4
2020
2019
2018
2017
Voting intention (party vote)
2021
2020
Fieldwork date
Polling firm
LDP
CDP
Kōmeitō
JCP
Ishin
DPFP
SDP
Reiwa
Kibō
N-Koku
Oth. /WV
Und. /no ans.
Lead
25–27 Dec
Nikkei
41
12
3
4
8
1
—
1
—
1
—
29
29
4–6 Dec
Yomiuri-NNN
49
9
4
2
7
1
1
1
1
1
24
40
27–29 Nov
Nikkei
48
10
4
3
7
2
1
2
1
—
22
38
14–15 Nov
Asahi Shimbun
45
12
6
4
6
1
1
1
1
2
21
33
14–15 Nov
ANN
40.9
10.4
3.8
3.5
3.8
0.6
1
0.6
0.2
1.6
33.6
30.5
6–8 Nov
Yomiuri-NNN
54
8
5
4
6
1
0
1
1
0
20
46
17–18 Oct
Asahi Shimbun
46
12
5
4
9
2
1
2
1
1
17
34
16–18 Oct
Yomiuri Shimbun
47
11
5
3
6
1
1
2
1
1
14
36
17–18 Oct
ANN
40.1
9.3
4.2
3.8
3.8
0.7
0.3
0.5
0.1
2.0
35.2
30.8
19–20 Sep
Yomiuri-NNN
55
8
6
3
6
1
0
1
0
—
20
47
19–20 Sep
ANN
45.1
11.9
4.3
3.0
2.9
0.8
0.3
0.2
0
3.5
28
33.2
16–17 Sep
Nikkei
54
10
4
2
6
1
1
2
1
—
18
44
16–17 Sep
Asahi Shimbun
48
12
6
4
8
1
1
2
1
1.0
15
36
16 Sep
Yoshihide Suga assumes office as the Prime Minister and President of the LDP .
18–19 Jul
Asahi Shimbun
35
13
6
5
10
3
2
2
1
2
3
18
22
13–14 Jun
go2senkyo [ a]
30.6
18.4
5.3
7.8
12.5
2.2
1.6
3.1
—
0.6
—
17.8
12.2
4 Mar – 13 Apr
Asahi
44
17
6
6
8
3
2
3
2
2
7
27
22 Oct 2017
2017 general election
33.3
19.9
12.5
7.9
6.1
N/A
0.8
—[ c]
17.4
1.3
—
—
13.4
Voting intention (district vote)
2021
Preferred outcome
2021
Fieldwork date
Polling firm
LDP re-election
Change in government
Evenly matched
Government gains seats
Opposition gains seats
Neither / Same as now
Und. /no ans.
23–24 Oct
Kyodo News Archived 2021-10-29 at the Wayback Machine
34.6
11.4
49.4
–
–
–
4.6
22–24 Oct
NHK
–
–
–
24.1
30.5
38.5
6.8
19–20 Oct
Asahi Shimbun
46
22
–
–
–
–
32
16–17 Oct
Kyodo News
36.3
13.9
45.2
–
–
–
4.6
16–17 Oct
go2senkyo [ a]
43.7
23.8
–
–
–
32.5
15–17 Oct
NHK
–
–
–
25.1
30.9
39.0
5.0
14–15 Oct
Yomiuri Shimbun
63
24
–
–
–
–
13
9–10 Oct
FNN-Sankei
–
–
–
22.1
35.9
36.5
5.5
8–10 Oct
NHK
–
–
–
25.4
28.3
40.9
5.4
4–5 Oct
Asahi Shimbun
–
–
–
17
33
32
18
18–19 Sep
ANN
–
–
–
45
35
–
20
11–12 Sep
Asahi Shimbun
–
–
–
19
36
36
9
10–12 Sep
NHK
–
–
–
22
26
47
5
7–8 Aug
Asahi Shimbun
–
–
–
15
37
34
14
Seat projections
2021
Seat projections from analysts (district seats + proportional representation)
Analysts
Publication/ Newspapers
Fieldwork date
LDP
CDP
Kōmeitō
JCP
Ishin
DPFP
SDP
Reiwa
N-Koku
Ind. /Oth.
Majority
Election results
31 Oct
259 (187+72)
96(57+39)
32(9+23)
10(1+9)
41(16+25)
11(6+5)
1(1+0)
3(0+3)
0(0+0)
12(12+0)
6
Kaoru Matsuda
Iza News
29 Oct
239
130
31
16
32
7
1
1
0
8
6
FNN-Sankei
—
23–24 Oct
237
136
26
17
30
6
2
1
0
10
4
Asahi Shimbun
251–279
94–120
25–37
9–21
25–36
5–12
2
3
–
4–9
18–46
Kōichi Kakutani
Shukan Asahi
19 Oct
243 (176+67)
137(79+58)
29(8+21)
19(2+17)
19(11+8)
8(5+3)
1(1+0)
1(0+1)
–
7
10
Tadaoki Nogami
239 (171+68)
137(85+52)
29(9+20)
18(1+17)
23(10+13)
10(5+5)
1(1+0)
1(0+1)
–
7
6
Takuma Ohamazaki
—
18 Oct
236 (166+70)
133(85+48)
29(8+21)
17(1+16)
30(13+17)
9(5+4)
1(1+0)
–
–
10
3
Hiroshi Miura
Sports Hochi
261 (192+69)
109(61+48)
32(9+23)
14(1+13)
25(10+15)
12(5+7)
1(1+0)
1(0+1)
–
10
28
Koichi Kakutani Archived 2021-10-20 at the Wayback Machine
Nikkan Sports
243 (176+67)
137(79+58)
29(8+21)
19(2+17)
19(11+8)
8(5+3)
2(1+1)
1(0+1)
–
7
10
Kaoru Matsuda Archived 2021-10-20 at the Wayback Machine
Yukan Fuji
14 Oct
244 (175+69)
128(82+46)
29(8+21)
17(1+16)
27(10+17)
10(5+5)
1(1+0)
1(0+1)
–
7
11
Masashi Kubota [ 2]
Shukan Bunshun
244 (171+73)
115(81+34)
33(8+25)
17(1+16)
26(11+15)
12(7+5)
2(1+1)
5(0+5)
–
–
11
Tadaoki Nogami Archived 2021-10-20 at the Wayback Machine
Shukan Post
12 Oct
239 (171+68)
136(84+52)
28(8+20)
18(1+17)
22(9+13)
10(5+5)
1(1+0)
1(0+1)
–
10
6
Hiroshi Miura [ 2]
Sunday Mainichi
257 (191+66)
113(64+49)
32(9+23)
14(1+13)
25(10+15)
14(5+9)
1(1+0)
1(0+1)
–
–
24
Seats before
276 (210+66)
110(48+62)
29(8+21)
12(1+11)
10(3+7)
8(6+2)
1(1+0)
1(0+1)
1(1+0)
9(9+0)
43
Preferred prime minister
Note: Polls phrase this question as "Who should be leader of the LDP for the next term?" or "Who should be Prime Minister for the next term?", including Opposition Leader Yukio Edano only in the latter case. Because of this, some polls excluded Shinzō Abe (even while he was the incumbent), as he had already been elected as LDP leader three times, the maximum presently allowed under party rules.
2021
2020
Fieldwork date
Polling firm
LDP
CDP
Others [ f]
NOT /UD /NA
Yoshihide Suga
Shinzō Abe
Shigeru Ishiba
Fumio Kishida
Tarō Kōno
Shinjirō Koizumi
Yukio Edano
5–6 Dec
JNN
14
23
6
17
15
6
19
7–8 Nov
JNN
16
20
6
18
14
6
21
3–4 Oct
JNN
20
20
7
19
12
4
18
16 Sep
Yoshihide Suga assumes office as the Prime Minister and President of the LDP .
5–6 Sep
JNN
48
27
6
0
16
29–30 Aug
Nikkei
11
28
6
15
14
3
0
21
28 Aug
Shinzo Abe announces his intention to resign as Prime Minister and President of the LDP .
22–23 Aug
ANN
4
11
27
4
9
15
2
28
15–16 Aug
go2senkyo
5.4
14.6
26.2
3.8
13.0
10.0
4.5
22.5
1–2 Aug
JNN
4
12
28
4
10
14
3
27
18–19 Jul
ANN
3
13
29
4
7
13
3
28
17–19 Jul
Nikkei
4
12
26
5
9
15
5
3
21
4–5 Jul
JNN
4
14
33
5
10
12
2
21
20–21 Jun
ANN
4
12
29
4
7
14
3
27
13–14 Jun
go2senkyo [ a]
3.7
18.4
29.6
4
5.8
9.4
6
23
6–7 Jun
JNN
4
13
28
5
8
15
3
26
5–7 Jun
Nikkei
3
14
23
4
8
15
6
2
24
23–24 May
Asahi
3
31
4
9
15
7 [ g]
31
16–17 May
ANN
3
11
25
4
7
14
5
31
9–10 May
JNN
5
17
23
6
7
14
3
25
8–10 May
Kyodo
1.5
15.5
12.7
2.6
4.4
8.4
3.4
2.2
49.3
10–13 Apr
Kyodo
3.1
16.8
18
2.5
3.8
7.2
4.1
1.9
42.6
4 Mar – 13 Apr
Asahi
6
24
6
7
13
6
0
38
10–13 Apr
Kyodo
1.1
17.8
20.9
3.8
4.1
10.6
4
2.7
35
4–5 Apr
JNN
4
14
25
5
7
16
4
25
27–29 Mar
Nikkei
4
16
22
4
7
13
6
1
26
21–22 Mar
ANN
4
16
28
6
6
11
3
26
7–8 Mar
JNN
4
15
28
6
6
15
2
25
15–16 Feb
Asahi
5
25
6
8
14
10 [ g]
32
15–16 Feb
Kyodo
2.1
13.4
22.6
3.9
5.4
12
5.7
3.9
31
1–2 Feb
JNN
6
16
24
6
8
14
3
24
18–19 Jan
Mainichi
22
19
2
19
0
0
11–12 Jan
Kyodo
4.5
13.1
18.2
3.5
6.9
11.8
4.6
1.1
36.3
11–12 Jan
JNN
5
17
25
5
9
16
3
22
Cabinet approval/disapproval ratings
Graphical summary
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
See also
Notes
References