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2020 United States Senate election in Mississippi

2020 United States Senate election in Mississippi
← 2018 (special) November 3, 2020 2026 →
Turnout60.4% Increase
 
Nominee Cindy Hyde-Smith Mike Espy
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 709,539 578,806
Percentage 54.11% 44.13%
Hyde-Smith:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80-90%      >90%
Espy:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      50%      No data
U.S. senator before election

Cindy Hyde-Smith
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Cindy Hyde-Smith
Republican

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The 2020 United States Senate election in Mississippi was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Mississippi, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith won reelection to a full term against Democratic nominee Mike Espy, in a rematch of the 2018 special election. Despite being outspent nearly four to one,[1] Hyde-Smith won by a ten-point margin; however, she underperformed Republican president Donald Trump in the concurrent presidential election by around 6 points.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Declined

Endorsements

Cindy Hyde-Smith
Organizations

Results

Republican primary results[7]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith (incumbent) 235,463 100.0%
Total votes 235,463 100.0%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Tobey Bartee, former military intelligence officer and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018[10]
  • Jensen Bohren, teacher, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018[11]

Declined

Endorsements

Mike Espy
Organizations

Results

Results by county
  Espy
  •   ≥90%
  •   80–90%
  •   70–80%
  Bartee
  •   50–60%
Democratic primary results[16]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Mike Espy 250,496 93.12%
Democratic Tobey Bartee 11,148 4.14%
Democratic Jensen Bohren 7,345 2.74%
Total votes 268,989 100.0%

Other candidates

Libertarian Party

Nominee

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[18] Likely R October 29, 2020
Inside Elections[19] Safe R October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[20] Likely R November 2, 2020
Daily Kos[21] Safe R October 30, 2020
Politico[22] Likely R November 2, 2020
RCP[23] Lean R October 23, 2020
DDHQ[24] Likely R November 3, 2020
538[25] Likely R November 2, 2020
Economist[26] Likely R November 2, 2020

Endorsements

Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)
Executive Branch officials
Organizations
Mike Espy (D)
Executive Branch officials
  • Joe Biden, 47th vice president of the United States (2009–2017), U.S. Senator from Delaware (1973–2009)[33]
  • Barack Obama, 44th president of the United States (2009–2017), U.S. Senator from Illinois (2005–2008)[34]
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State officials
Notable individuals
Organizations
Unions

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Cindy
Hyde-Smith (R) 		Mike
Espy (D) 		Other Undecided
Data For Progress[46] October 27 – November 1, 2020 562 (LV) ± 4.1% 50% 47% 4%[a] –
Civiqs/Daily Kos[47] October 23–26, 2020 507 (LV) ± 5.3% 52% 44% 3%[b] 2%
The Progress Campaign (D)[48] October 23, 2020 – (V)[c] – 48% 43% – –
Tyson Group (R)[49][A] August 28–30, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 41% 40% – 18%
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)[50][B] July 30 – August 9, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.1% 47% 42% 3%[d] 8%
Public Policy Polling (D)[51][C] May 27–28, 2020 871 (V) ± 3.3% 49% 41% – 10%
Impact Management Group (R)[52] May 4–7, 2020 606 (LV) ± 4.4% 58% 31% 3%[e] 9%[f]
Tyson Group (R)[49][A] March 10–12, 2020 600 (LV) – 54% 28% – 18%
The Progress Campaign (D)[53] March 3–7, 2020 826 (V) – 52% 44% – 4%[g]
Mason-Dixon[54] February 26–28, 2020 625 (LV) ± 4.0% 53% 43% – 4%
Chism Strategies[55] January 3–7, 2020 618 (LV) ± 3.9% 44% 36% – 20%

Results

United States Senate election in Mississippi, 2020[56]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith (incumbent) 709,511 54.11% +0.48%
Democratic Mike Espy 578,691 44.13% −2.24%
Libertarian Jimmy Edwards 23,152 1.77% N/A
Total votes 1,311,354 100.00%
Republican hold

By county

By county
County[57] Cindy Hyde-Smith
Republican 		Mike Espy
Democratic 		Jimmy Edwards
Libertarian 		Margin Total
votes
# % # % # % # %
Adams 5,416 39.37 8,190 59.53 152 1.10 -2,774 -20.16 13,758
Alcorn 11,616 74.29 3,641 23.29 378 2.42 7,975 51.01 15,635
Amite 4,347 60.62 2,750 38.35 74 1.03 1,597 22.27 7,171
Attala 4,888 55.42 3,824 43.36 108 1.22 1,064 12.06 8,820
Benton 2,320 54.21 1,868 43.64 92 2.15 452 10.56 4,280
Bolivar 4,317 31.40 9,330 67.86 102 0.74 -5,013 -36.46 13,749
Calhoun 4,341 65.86 2,138 32.44 112 1.70 2,203 33.42 6,591
Carroll 3,716 64.93 1,923 33.60 84 1.47 1,793 31.33 5,723
Chickasaw 3,913 47.96 4,134 50.67 112 1.37 -221 -2.71 8,159
Choctaw 2,811 66.78 1,320 31.36 78 1.85 1,491 35.42 4,209
Claiborne 555 12.37 3,907 87.05 26 0.58 -3,352 -74.69 4,488
Clarke 5,169 61.93 3,053 36.58 125 1.50 2,116 25.35 8,347
Clay 4,006 38.95 6,171 59.99 109 1.06 -2,165 -21.05 10,286
Coahoma 2,133 25.05 6,337 74.41 46 0.54 -4,204 -49.37 8,516
Copiah 6,062 46.96 6,730 52.13 118 0.91 -668 -5.17 12,910
Covington 5,604 59.80 3,637 38.81 131 1.40 1,967 20.99 9,372
DeSoto 43,171 56.76 31,115 40.91 1,768 2.33 12,056 15.85 76,054
Forrest 16,079 50.81 14,871 46.99 695 2.20 1,208 3.82 31,645
Franklin 2,833 63.56 1,570 35.23 54 1.21 1,263 28.34 4,457
George 8,811 80.72 1,844 16.89 260 2.38 6,967 63.83 10,915
Greene 4,395 76.84 1,196 20.91 129 2.25 3,199 55.93 5,720
Grenada 5,654 51.72 5,120 46.84 157 1.44 534 4.88 10,931
Hancock 14,537 70.02 5,651 27.22 573 2.76 8,886 42.80 20,761
Harrison 43,180 57.04 30,367 40.12 2,152 2.84 12,813 16.93 75,699
Hinds 23,661 23.65 75,467 75.44 910 0.91 -51,806 -51.77 100,038
Holmes 1,230 15.25 6,798 84.30 36 0.45 -5,568 -69.05 8,064
Humphreys 1,023 24.43 3,135 74.88 29 0.69 -2,112 -50.44 4,187
Issaquena 309 45.37 367 53.89 5 0.73 -58 -8.52 681
Itawamba 8,818 82.04 1,680 15.63 251 2.33 7,138 66.41 10,749
Jackson 33,608 61.93 19,334 35.63 1,325 2.44 14,274 26.30 54,267
Jasper 4,102 46.88 4,556 52.07 92 1.05 -454 -5.19 8,750
Jefferson Davis 2,400 38.70 3,758 60.59 44 0.71 -1,358 -21.90 6,202
Jefferson 476 12.15 3,428 87.54 12 0.31 -2,952 -75.38 3,916
Jones 19,917 66.43 9,422 31.43 641 2.14 10,495 35.01 29,980
Kemper 1,720 36.40 2,965 62.75 40 0.85 -1,245 -26.35 4,725
Lafayette 12,127 51.90 10,806 46.25 432 1.85 1,321 5.65 23,365
Lamar 19,588 68.88 8,157 28.68 693 2.44 11,431 40.20 28,438
Lauderdale 17,082 54.89 13,537 43.50 501 1.61 3,545 11.39 31,120
Lawrence 4,222 64.00 2,318 35.14 57 0.86 1,904 28.86 6,597
Leake 4,991 54.21 4,123 44.79 92 1.00 868 9.43 9,206
Lee 22,739 61.70 13,372 36.28 745 2.02 9,367 25.42 36,856
Leflore 2,914 26.72 7,936 72.76 57 0.52 -5,022 -46.04 10,907
Lincoln 11,378 67.72 5,256 31.28 168 1.00 6,122 36.44 16,802
Lowndes 13,010 47.79 13,843 50.85 369 1.36 -833 -3.06 27,222
Madison 30,038 53.42 25,374 45.12 823 1.46 4,664 8.29 56,235
Marion 7,821 64.19 4,177 34.28 187 1.53 3,644 29.91 12,185
Marshall 6,904 43.96 8,590 54.69 212 1.35 -1,686 -10.74 15,706
Monroe 10,516 60.89 6,441 37.29 314 1.82 4,075 23.59 17,271
Montgomery 2,738 53.81 2,264 44.50 86 1.69 474 9.32 5,088
Neshoba 7,797 67.03 3,602 30.96 234 2.01 4,195 36.06 11,633
Newton 6,659 65.77 3,290 32.49 176 1.74 3,369 33.27 10,125
Noxubee 1,178 22.07 4,138 77.53 21 0.39 -2,960 -55.46 5,337
Oktibbeha 8,592 43.45 10,870 54.97 313 1.58 -2,278 -11.52 19,775
Panola 7,425 47.60 7,953 50.99 220 1.41 -528 -3.39 15,598
Pearl River 17,814 75.33 5,053 21.37 780 3.30 12,761 53.96 23,647
Perry 4,204 71.24 1,555 26.35 142 2.41 2,649 44.89 5,901
Pike 8,044 46.37 9,048 52.15 257 1.48 -1,004 -5.79 17,349
Pontotoc 10,803 75.52 3,164 22.12 337 2.36 7,639 53.40 14,304
Prentiss 7,651 72.22 2,714 25.62 229 2.16 4,937 46.60 10,594
Quitman 883 27.27 2,307 71.25 48 1.48 -1,424 -43.98 3,238
Rankin 48,502 68.82 20,315 28.82 1,664 2.36 28,187 39.99 70,481
Scott 5,933 55.28 4,649 43.31 151 1.41 1,284 11.96 10,733
Sharkey 663 30.40 1,511 69.28 7 0.32 -848 -38.88 2,181
Simpson 7,381 62.43 4,303 36.40 138 1.17 3,078 26.04 11,822
Smith 6,202 74.64 1,977 23.79 130 1.57 4,225 50.85 8,309
Stone 5,609 71.38 2,051 26.10 198 2.52 3,558 45.28 7,858
Sunflower 2,623 27.08 7,020 72.48 42 0.43 -4,397 -45.40 9,685
Tallahatchie 2,309 40.59 3,316 58.29 64 1.25 -1,007 -17.70 5,689
Tate 8,071 61.98 4,694 36.05 256 1.97 3,377 25.93 13,021
Tippah 7,394 73.69 2,432 24.24 208 2.07 4,962 49.45 10,034
Tishomingo 7,216 79.59 1,594 17.58 256 2.82 5,622 62.01 9,066
Tunica 814 22.78 2,717 76.04 42 1.18 -1,903 -53.26 3,573
Union 9,572 75.63 2,660 21.02 424 3.35 6,912 54.61 12,656
Walthall 4,005 56.54 2,993 42.25 86 1.21 1,012 14.29 7,084
Warren 9,912 47.18 10,853 51.65 246 1.17 -941 -4.48 21,011
Washington 4,891 26.94 13,155 72.46 109 0.60 -8,264 -45.52 18,155
Wayne 5,984 59.35 3,954 39.22 144 1.43 2,030 20.13 10,082
Webster 4,067 75.62 1,198 22.28 113 2.10 2,869 53.35 5,378
Wilkinson 1,295 31.76 2,702 66.27 80 1.96 -1,407 -32.06 4,077
Winston 4,846 52.32 4,303 46.45 114 1.23 543 5.86 9,263
Yalobusha 3,415 52.47 3,005 46.17 88 1.35 410 6.30 6,508
Yazoo 4,551 43.62 5,804 55.63 79 0.76 -1,253 -12.01 10,434
Totals 709,511 54.11 578,691 44.13 23,152 1.77 130,820 9.98 1,311,354

By congressional district

Hyde-Smith won three of four congressional districts.[58]

District Hyde-Smith Espy Representative
1st 60% 38% Trent Kelly
2nd 33% 66% Bennie Thompson
3rd 58% 41% Michael Guest
4th 63% 34% Steven Palazzo

Notes

  1. ^ Edwards (L) with 3%; "Other candidate or write-in" with 1%
  2. ^ Edwards (L) with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
  3. ^ Not yet released
  4. ^ "Third party" with 3%
  5. ^ Edwards (L) with 3%
  6. ^ Includes "refused"
  7. ^ Listed as "other/undecided"

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b Poll sponsored by the Consumer Energy Alliance, which is a pro-Keystone XL lobbying group.
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by Espy's campaign
  3. ^ Poll conducted for the Mississippi Democratic Party.

References

  1. ^ "Mississippi Senate 2020 Race". OpenSecrets. Archived from the original on April 21, 2021.
  2. ^ "HYDE-SMITH, CINDY – Candidate overview". FEC.gov.
  3. ^ Lange, Alan (May 22, 2019). "Say it ain't so. Time to talk about the 2020 senate race already?". Y'all Politics. Retrieved May 23, 2019.
  4. ^ a b Douglas, William; Glueck, Katie (November 28, 2018). "Get ready: The fierce Mississippi Senate race may not be ending anytime soon". McClatchy. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
  5. ^ Ganucheau, Adam (November 12, 2019). "Former Miss America pageant leader mulls Sen. Hyde-Smith challenge in 2020 GOP primary". Mississippi Today. Retrieved November 15, 2019.
  6. ^ a b "2020 Candidates". maggieslist.org.
  7. ^ "2020 State Republican Party Certified Primary Election Results". MS GOP. June 3, 2020. Archived from the original on August 14, 2020. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
  8. ^ "ESPY, MICHAEL – Candidate overview". FEC.gov.
  9. ^ "Democrat Mike Espy starts 2020 US Senate bid in Mississippi". The Philadelphia Tribune. November 15, 2019.
  10. ^ "Mississippi will have Democratic primary for US Senate". AP NEWS. January 10, 2020. Retrieved February 13, 2020.
  11. ^ Ulmer, Sarah (June 17, 2019). "Unique candidate Jensen Bohren announces candidacy for 2020 U.S. Senate run". Retrieved June 17, 2019.
  12. ^ a b Singiser, Steve. "Here's our ultimate Democratic wishlist for Senate in 2020. Who's on yours?". Daily Kos. Retrieved February 19, 2019.
  13. ^ "DSCC Endorses Mike Espy in Mississippi Senate Race". November 13, 2019.
  14. ^ "Our Candidates". Flip the Senate. Retrieved March 10, 2020.
  15. ^ Acosta, Lucas (March 4, 2020). "HRC Endorses Mike Espy for U.S. Senate". Human Rights Campaign.[dead link‍]
  16. ^ "2020 State Democratic Party Certified Primary Election Results". MS DEMS. June 3, 2020. Archived from the original on April 18, 2020. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
  17. ^ Pettus, Emily (March 11, 2020). "Espy wins Mississippi US Senate primary, setting up rematch with Hyde-Smith". Associated Press. Retrieved May 13, 2020.
  18. ^ "2020 Senate Race Ratings for October 29, 2020". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
  19. ^ "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
  20. ^ "2020 Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved March 12, 2021.
  21. ^ "2020 Senate Race Ratings". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
  22. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  23. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2020". RCP. October 23, 2020.
  24. ^ "2020 Senate Elections Model". Decision Desk HQ. September 2, 2020. Retrieved September 2, 2020.
  25. ^ Silver, Nate (September 18, 2020). "Forecasting the race for the Senate". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved September 18, 2020.
  26. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. November 2, 2020. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
  27. ^ Geoff Pender (October 21, 2020). "Trump endorses Cindy Hyde-Smith in Mississippi Senate race". Mississippi Today.
  28. ^ "Endorsed Candidates | CWF". www.cwfpac.com. Retrieved August 21, 2024.
  29. ^ "Mississippi". www.huckpac.com. Archived from the original on October 27, 2020.
  30. ^ "NRA-PVF | Grades | Mississippi". NRA-PVF. Archived from the original on October 27, 2020.
  31. ^ "2020 Election HQ". Archived from the original on November 1, 2020.
  32. ^ "U.S. Chamber of Commerce again endorses Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith for US Senate". www.yallpolitics.com. June 30, 2020. Today, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce has again endorsed Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith in her race to retain her seat against Democrat challenger Mike Espy.
  33. ^ "U.S. Senate Candidate Mike Espy receives endorsement from Joe Biden". WMC5. Retrieved October 2, 2020.
  34. ^ "Obama endorses Espy in Mississippi Senate Race". The Hill. Retrieved October 21, 2020.
  35. ^ "Sen. Elizabeth Warren endorses Mike Espy for U.S. Senator". June 21, 2020.
  36. ^ Adam Ganucheau (October 22, 2020). "Rep. Bennie Thompson, Democratic kingmaker, throws full support behind Mike Espy in Senate race". Mississippi Today.
  37. ^ "Stacey Abrams endorses candidates in 7 US Senate Contests". AP.
  38. ^ Frank Corder (October 15, 2020). "Yang's PAC endorses Espy, says it gives Democrats better chance to pass universal basic income". Y'all Politics.
  39. ^ "2020 Endorsements". Retrieved August 21, 2024.
  40. ^ "CBC Candidate: Mike Espy". Archived from the original on October 27, 2020. Retrieved October 24, 2020.
  41. ^ Geoff Pender (October 4, 2020). "Espy finally lands support from national Democrats in Senate race. Is it too late?". Mississippi Today.
  42. ^ "2020 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org.
  43. ^ "HRC Endorses Mike Espy for U.S. Senate". HRC. March 4, 2020.
  44. ^ "Mississippi AFL-CIO endorses Mike Espy for Senate". April 7, 2020.
  45. ^ "U.S. Senate – Education Votes". educationvotes.nea.org.
  46. ^ Data For Progress
  47. ^ Civiqs/Daily Kos
  48. ^ The Progress Campaign (D)
  49. ^ a b Tyson Group (R)
  50. ^ Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)
  51. ^ Public Policy Polling (D)
  52. ^ Impact Management Group (R) [permanent dead link‍]
  53. ^ The Progress Campaign (D)
  54. ^ Mason-Dixon Archived November 5, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  55. ^ Chism Strategies
  56. ^ "AMENDED CERTIFICATION OF VOTE FOR UNITED STATES SENATE" (PDF). Secretary of State of Mississippi. December 7, 2020. Retrieved February 13, 2022.
  57. ^ "Total Votes Reported by Counties for 2020 General Election" (PDF). Statewide Election Management System. Secretary of State of Mississippi. Retrieved February 13, 2022.
  58. ^ "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved August 21, 2024.

Official campaign websites

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