2020 United States presidential election in Vermont
2020 United States presidential election in Vermont Turnout 73.27%[ 1]
County results Municipality results Precinct results
Biden
40–50%
50–60%
60–70%
70–80%
80–90%
90–100%
Trump
40–50%
50–60%
60–70%
Tie/No data
The 2020 United States presidential election in Vermont was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[ 2] Vermont voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party 's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump , and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden , and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris . Vermont has three electoral votes in the Electoral College.[ 3]
Biden easily emerged victorious in the Green Mountain State 66.09% to 30.67%, a margin of 35.4%. This is the first time Vermont was the strongest state for either party since 1956 , when it was Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower 's best state. Vermont also saw the largest increase in turnout from 2016 , increasing 14.3%.[ 4] Hillary Clinton 's 55.7% vote share and 25.9% margin from 2016, when third-party candidates received over 14% of the vote.[ 5] Essex bordering New Hampshire , which had voted for the winner from 1980 to 2016. Consequently, Biden became the first president to win without the county since Jimmy Carter in 1976 .
Another factor for Biden's improvement was strong support from Bernie Sanders , one of the state's U.S. Senators and a former candidate for the 2020 Democratic nomination who, despite endorsing Hillary Clinton, had received 5.7% of the vote in 2016 as a non-soliciting write-in candidate. Per exit polls by the Associated Press , Sanders maintained a 63% approval rating among his constituents, and his supporters broke 93% for Biden.[ 6]
Background
Vermont was once one of the most Republican states in the nation. From 1856 to 1988 , it voted Republican in every election except Lyndon Johnson 's 44-state landslide in 1964 . However, the brand of Republicanism practiced in Vermont has historically been a moderate one. Coupled with an influx of more liberal newcomers from out of state, this made Vermont considerably friendlier to Democrats as the national GOP moved further to the right.
After narrowly supporting George H. W. Bush in 1988, Vermont gave Bill Clinton a 16-point margin in 1992 . Republicans have not seriously contested the state since then, and Vermont is now reckoned as part of the "Blue Wall "–the 19 jurisdictions that delivered their electoral votes to the Democratic standard-bearer at every election from 1992 to 2012 , and again in 2020. Underlining how Republican Vermont once was, Trump and George W. Bush are the only Republicans to win the White House without carrying Vermont.
Primary elections
Republican primary
The Republican primary was held on March 3, 2020. Donald Trump and Bill Weld were among the declared Republican candidates.
2020 Vermont Republican primary[ 7]
Candidate
Votes
%
Delegates[ 8]
Donald Trump 33,984
86.49
17
Bill Weld 3,971
10.11
0
Rocky De La Fuente 341
0.87
0
Write-ins
480
1.22
0
Overvotes
37
0.09
0
Blank votes
478
1.22
0
Total
39,291
100%
17
Democratic primary
The Democratic primary was held on March 3, 2020. Bernie Sanders , one of the two current senators from Vermont and a 2016 Democratic primary candidate , declared his candidacy on February 19, 2019, after speculation he would do so.[ 9] [ 10] Joe Biden , Michael Bloomberg , and Elizabeth Warren were among the other major declared candidates.[ 11] [ 12]
Popular vote share by county Sanders—40–50%
Sanders—50–60%
General election
Predictions
Source
Ranking
As of
The Cook Political Report [ 15] Safe D
September 10, 2020
Inside Elections [ 16] Safe D
September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [ 17] Safe D
July 14, 2020
Politico [ 18] Safe D
September 8, 2020
RCP [ 19] Safe D
August 3, 2020
Niskanen [ 20] Safe D
July 26, 2020
CNN [ 21] Safe D
August 3, 2020
The Economist [ 22] Safe D
September 2, 2020
CBS News [ 23] Likely D
August 16, 2020
270towin [ 24] Safe D
August 2, 2020
ABC News [ 25] Safe D
July 31, 2020
NPR [ 26] Likely D
August 3, 2020
NBC News [ 27] Safe D
August 6, 2020
538 [ 28] Safe D
September 9, 2020
Polling
Aggregate polls
Polls
Results
By county
County[ 33]
Joe Biden
Donald Trump
Various candidates
Margin
Total votes cast
#
%
#
%
#
%
#
%
Addison
14,967
67.96%
6,292
28.57%
763
3.47%
8,675
39.39%
22,022
Bennington
12,705
62.09%
7,114
34.77%
643
3.14%
5,591
27.32%
20,462
Caledonia
9,011
55.73%
6,551
40.52%
607
3.75%
2,460
15.21%
16,169
Chittenden
74,961
75.78%
21,017
21.25%
2,937
2.97%
53,944
54.53%
98,915
Essex
1,405
42.73%
1,773
53.92%
110
3.35%
-368
-11.19%
3,288
Franklin
13,611
52.69%
11,274
43.65%
945
3.66%
2,337
9.04%
25,830
Grand Isle
2,905
59.88%
1,810
37.31%
763
2.81%
1,095
22.57%
4,851
Lamoille
10,240
68.66%
4,163
27.91%
512
3.43%
6,077
40.75%
14,915
Orange
10,304
60.18%
6,187
36.13%
631
3.69%
4,117
24.05%
17,122
Orleans
7,147
50.70%
6,512
46.20%
437
3.10%
635
4.50%
14,096
Rutland
18,230
53.66%
14,672
43.19%
1,068
3.15%
3,558
10.47%
33,970
Washington
25,191
71.35%
8,928
25.29%
1,188
3.36%
16,263
46.06%
35,307
Windham
18,767
72.08%
6,440
24.74%
828
3.18%
12,327
47.34%
26,035
Windsor
23,376
67.86%
9,971
28.95%
1,099
3.19%
13,405
38.91%
34,446
Totals
242,820
66.09%
112,704
30.67%
11,904
3.24%
130,116
35.42%
367,428
Swing by county
Democratic — +10-12.5%
Democratic — +7.5-10%
Democratic — +5-7.5%
Democratic — +2.5-5%
Democratic — +0-2.5%
Republican — +0-2.5%
Republican — +2.5-5%
Republican — +5-7.5%
Trend relative to the state by county
Democratic — +10-12.5%
Democratic — +7.5-10%
Democratic — +5-7.5%
Democratic — +2.5-5%
Democratic — +0-2.5%
Republican — +0-2.5%
Republican — +2.5-5%
Republican — +5-7.5%
By congressional district
Due to the state's low population, only one congressional district is allocated. This district, called the at-large district because it covers the entire state, is thus equivalent to the statewide election results.
Notes
^ a b c Candidate withdrew during absentee voting, shortly before the primary.
^ a b Candidate withdrew following the New Hampshire primary, when absentee voting had already begun.
^ Including "Blank" (written in) with 8 votes; Ron Paul , Michelle Obama , John Edwards and two others with 2 votes; and 110 other write-ins with 1 vote
^ 57 overvotes and 323 blank votes
^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
^ Key:
^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
^ "Someone else" with 6%"; "None of the above" with 2%
Partisan clients
^ Poll sponsored by Milne's campaign in the 2020 Vermont lieutenant gubernatorial election
See also
References
^ "Voter turnout" (PDF) . sos.vermont.gov . Retrieved November 11, 2020 .^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?" . The Independent . Retrieved January 3, 2019 . ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes" . National Archives and Records Administration . Retrieved January 3, 2019 .^ "Map: Turnout surged in 2020. See the numbers where you live" . NBC News . Retrieved December 4, 2020 .^ Wasserman, David; Sophie; rews; Saenger, Leo; Cohen, Lev; Flinn, Ally; Tatarsky, Griff. "2020 Popular Vote Tracker" . The Cook Political Report . Retrieved December 4, 2020 . ^ "Vermont Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted" . The New York Times . November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331 . Retrieved November 15, 2020 .^ ":: Vermont Election Night Results ::" . vtelectionresults.sec.state.vt.us . Archived from the original on August 11, 2017. Retrieved March 4, 2020 .^ "Vermont Election Results 2020" . PBS NewsHour . Retrieved March 26, 2020 .^ "Bernie Sanders Enters 2020 Presidential Campaign, No Longer An Underdog" . NPR . Retrieved February 20, 2019 .^ Martin, Jonathan; Ember, Sydney (December 27, 2018). "For Bernie Sanders, Holding Onto Support May Be Hard in a 2020 Bid" . The New York Times ^ Taylor, Kate (February 9, 2019). "Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Massachusetts" . The New York Times . Retrieved February 10, 2019 . ^ Ma, John Haltiwanger, Joe Perticone, Alexandra. "Joe Biden is running for president in 2020, warning that another term of Trump would tarnish America's soul forever" . Business Insider . Retrieved May 1, 2019 . {{cite web }}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link )^ "OFFICIAL REPORT OF THE CANVASSING COMMITTEE UNITED STATES AND VERMONT STATEWIDE OFFICES PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY" (PDF) . Vermont Secretary of State . March 9, 2020. Retrieved March 25, 2022 .^ "2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Idaho Democrat" . The Green Papers . Retrieved November 23, 2022 .^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF) . The Cook Political Report . Retrieved May 21, 2019 .^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections" . insideelections.com . Retrieved May 21, 2019 .^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President" . crystalball.centerforpolitics.org . Retrieved May 21, 2019 .^ "2020 Election Forecast" . Politico . November 19, 2019.^ "Battle for White House" . RCP . April 19, 2019.^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine , Niskanen Center , March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020" . CNN . Retrieved June 16, 2020 . ^ "Forecasting the US elections" . The Economist . Retrieved July 7, 2020 .^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker" . CBS News . July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020 .^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map" . 270 to Win .^ "ABC News Race Ratings" . CBS News . July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020 .^ Montanaro, Domenico (August 3, 2020). "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes" . NPR.org . Retrieved August 3, 2020 . ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten" . NBC News . Retrieved August 6, 2020 .^ "2020 Election Forecast" . FiveThirtyEight . August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020 .^ FiveThirtyEight ^ a b c d e f SurveyMonkey/Axios ^ co/efficient/Scott Milne for Lt. Governor ^ Braun Research/VPR ^ a b "General official results" (PDF) . sos.vermont.gov . Archived from the original (PDF) on November 10, 2020. Retrieved November 11, 2020 .
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